UPDATE 1-Czech central bank lifts rates, signals another hike later in 2018

By Kitco News / February 01, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link

* Central bank delivers third rate hike since August

* Governor signals another hike likely later this year

* Some analysts had expected faster hike pace

* Crown gives up some gains

* For TEXT of c.bank statement: (Updates with c.bank, governor comments, market reaction)

By Robert Muller and Jan Lopatka

PRAGUE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The Czech National Bank raised interest rates on Thursday for the third time since it launched a tightening cycle last year and said another hike was highly probable later in 2018.

With a fast-growing economy and falling unemployment pushing up wages and inflation, the Czech central bank is one of the few in Europe raising borrowing costs after years of loose policy.

The bank's board, with five of its seven members present, voted unanimously on Thursday to lift the main two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent .

Governor Jiri Rusnok told reporters afterwards that a second rate hike this year was highly probable. He had said last month that at least two hikes could happen in 2018.

"We have one behind us today, and the second is highly probable," he said. '

"There is a question of when it comes, if it will be toward the end of the year or if it will be earlier in the second half, or at all. Everything is open."

Some voices had "raised the question of whether... we shouldn't wait" on Thursday, Rusnok added.

The crown scaled a fresh five-year high of 25.179 to the euro before retreating somewhat after Rusnok spoke, trading at 25.243 by 1428 GMT, up 0.1 percent. Dealers said market rates fell 5-8 basis points after Rusnok's comments.

Some analysts had expected tamer central bank comments after Thursday's rate hike given the crown's strength.

Others sees chances of up to four rate hikes this year. Eight of 14 analysts in a Reuters poll this week expected another increase in the second quarter. The crown has been one of the best performing currencies in the world in the last year, firming over 7 percent since the bank ended a currency cap in April after keeping it artificially weak for more than three years.

"CNB is quite optimistic regarding the crown appreciation ... I would not be surprised if the appreciation was somewhat slower in the months of spring and summer," said Radomir Jac, chief economist at Generali Investments CEE.

"Such development would be consistent with another rate hike at the CNB board meeting in August."

The interest rate rise widens the differential with the European Central Bank, which plans to maintain its ultra-loose policy until at least September.

The central bank has been cautious with its tightening, although the Czech economy grew by 5.0 percent in the third quarter last year. Inflation dipped to 2.4 percent in December, sticking above the bank's 2 percent target.

The bank's new outlook, published on Thursday, slightly raised growth forecasts to 3.6 percent in 2018, up from an estimated 4.5 percent rise last year. The bank for the first time since 2013 published the assumed path of the exchange rate of the crown, seeing the currency at 24.9 to the euro this year and 24.5 next year.

Deviations of the actual exchange rate form the forecast would point to a need to change the outlook for the interest rate component of monetary conditions, it said.


(Reporting by Jan Lopatka and Robert Muller; Writing by Jason Hovet; Editing by Catherine Evans)

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