TREASURIES-U.S. yields rise as investors brush off payroll miss

By Kitco News / January 05, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link

* Traders see Fed hiking rates in March despite Dec payroll miss

* Some investors see wage inflation pickup after tax reform

* Rising yields not a challenge to Wall Street's record run

* Corporate, government supply puts pressure on bond yields


(Updates market action, adds quote, table, graphic)

By Richard Leong

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday with the two-year yield hovering near a more than nine-year peak as investors stuck to the view of a possible rate increase in March, brushing off a disappointing figure on domestic hiring for December.

The notion of a healthy U.S. economy was intact even after the Labor Department said on Friday employers added 148,000 workers last month, fewer than the 190,000 forecast by analysts polled by Reuters.

Offsetting that though was a 0.3-percent increase in wages and a jobless rate holding at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.

"This still represents a solid labor market," said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at the private client group of U.S. Bank in Helena, Montana. "As investors were able to shift through the data, they concluded it is not a harbinger for weaker economic activity."

Continued steady growth, which many analysts believe would be buttressed by the federal tax cuts passed in December,pushed Wall Street's major indexes to record highs on Friday.

Appetite for stocks and other risky assets in the first week of 2018 has led to reduced holdings in U.S. government debt even as two-year Treasuries are yielding more than S&P 500 stocks . "The higher (two-year) yield may entice some investors who see it meeting their income need, but it's not enough to derail the equity market in our view," Northey said.

Moreover, the upward pressure on yields will likely persist due to debt supply. Companies issued $21.55 billion in U.S. high-grade bonds so far this week, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters unit. The U.S. Treasury Department will sell $56 billion in coupon-bearing debt next week, starting with a $24 billion auction in three-year notes on Tuesday . At 2:52 p.m. (1952 GMT), the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up 2 basis point at 2.474 percent, within striking distance of the nine-month peak of 2.504 percent set on Dec. 21.

The two-year yield , which is sensitive to traders' views on Fed policy, edged up 0.4 basis point to 1.960 percent. On Thursday, it reached 1.976 percent which was the highest since October 2008.

In the futures market, federal funds contracts implied traders priced in two rate hikes in 2018 with the next one likely to occur in March . This was unchanged from Thursday, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed. January 5 Friday 3:02PM New York / 2002 GMT

PriceUS T BONDS MAR8 151-26/32-16/3210YR TNotes MAR8 123-128/256-6/32

PriceCurrent Net

Yield % Change

(bps)Three-month bills 1.38 1.40380.000Six-month bills 1.5551.5888-0.005Two-year note 99-214/256 1.95990.004Three-year note 99-124/256 2.05680.017Five-year note 99-64/2562.28520.017Seven-year note 99-4/256 2.404 0.02210-year note 98-12/2562.47450.02130-year bond 98-200/256 2.81050.024

YIELD CURVE Last (bps) Net

Change

(bps) 10-year vs 2-year yield 51.301.5530-year vs 5-year yield 52.400.75DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS

Last (bps) Net

Change

(bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap18.50 0.00spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap18.50-1.00spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 4.00-0.25spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap -1.25 0.00spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap-20.75-0.25spread


<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ U.S. 2-year yield vs S&P 500 dividend rate ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>(Additional reporting by Kate Duguid; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Lisa Von Ahn and Susan Thomas)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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