We've been writing about the evolving global supply shock for some time (most recently today when we addressed what may be required to normalize the supply chain bottlenecks). And yet, every day we read about another dramatic commodity spike or factory shutdown.In a recent report from Deutsche Bank's chief FX strategist George Saravelos, he discusses three sets of charts. They point to a...Read More

Last night we noted the Czechs had the dubious honor of suffering the first yield curve inversion of this cycle...The first inversion of many pic.twitter.com/wNPpbhcbM6- zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 28, 2021Then overnight saw the stress spread to Australia's bond market, as a massive move higher in 2Y Yields undoubtedly triggered chaos in risk control departments.And that VaR shock is now s...Read More

With the Atlanta Fed cutting its GDPNow estimate to just 0.2% yesterday...... there were big worries that today the BEA could reveal a shocker of a number, one far below the rapidly falling consensus estimate of 2.6%. Well, the Q3 GDP number just came out and it was bad, but not nearly as bad as it could have been: at 2.0%, it did indeed miss the 2.6% consensus by a lot but it could have been far...Read More

Having slipped back to COVID-crisis lows, the final print for UMich sentiment was very modestly higher than the preliminary October data but Current Conditions dipped further as Expectations rose a smidge from early October but are down from September.Current Conditions are actually at their weakest since the crisis lows in April 2020.Source: Bloomberg"The positive impact of higher income expectat...Read More

Markit's US Manufacturing PMI tumbled in October, from 60.70 in September to 59.2 in preliminary October data to a final print of 58.4, tracking the dismal disappointing slide in actual US macroeconomic data.ISM's US Manufacturing survey also slipped lower in October (from 61.1 to 60.8) but printed better than the expected 60.5.Source: BloombergThat is the lowest Manufacturing PMI since...Read More

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,Market Back To Extreme OverboughtWith earnings season in full swing, stocks continued to push higher this week. Even disappointing earnings from Starbucks, Apple, and Amazon couldn't keep the bulls down much. So far, the earnings season has pretty much aligned with expectations. As noted by FactSet:"Overall, 56% of the companies in the S&P...Read More

Last week may have seen the peak of earnings season with the GAMMA companies (fka as FAAMG) reporting earnings that left quite a bit to be desired, but it gets even busier this week with the Fed's Wednesday taper announcement, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report and a slew of other events taking place in the coming five days.In addition to two very closely watched meetings from the RBA (Tue...Read More

McClellan Financial Publications, IncPosted Nov 4, 2021Oct 29, 2021The message from uranium prices is that gold prices are headed higher.And I have no idea why this relationship works.Six years ago, I uncovered an interesting leading indication relationship, wherein the movements of uranium prices tend to show up again about 7 months later in the movements of gold prices.I cannot think of any reas...Read More

Initial jobless claims improved further last week with 'just' 269k Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits...Source: BloombergKentucky and California saw the biggest jump in jobless claims while Missouri and Florida saw the biggest drop...That leaves the total number of Americans on some form of government dole just above 2.6 million......the lowest since pre-pandemic-lockdown.....Read More

After two months of dismal job reports, the BLS finally redeemed itself when moments ago it reported that in October the US gained some 531K jobs, well above the 450K consensus exp and above the 500K whisper number. The gain in payrolls was also bigger than all but 10 of the 75 forecasts in Bloomberg's survey.As Bloomberg calculates, if payroll gains stay at the same pace as October's, in eight mo...Read More

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,The facts of surreal yet broken (and hence increasingly controlled and desperate) financial markets are becoming harder to deny and ignore. Below, we look at the blunt evidence of control rather than the fork-tongued words of policy makers and ask a simple question: How long can lies & control supplant reality?The Great Disconnect: Tanki...Read More

The market's rate-hike expectations are surging higher this morning following the way hotter than expected CPI print. Additionally, perpelxing double-speak from Biden is not helping as he reflects on The Fed's "independence" while implying the need to 'do something about inflation!!!!':"And I want to reemphasize my commitment to the independence of the federal re...Read More

Following yesterday's US PPI print at record highs, overnight we saw Chinese producer prices rising at their fastest pace in 26 years, and this morning's US consumer price data was expected to show yet another non-transitory surge in inflation... but the actual surge was far bigger than expected.US Consumer prices soared 6.2% YoY in October, far higher than the +5.9% YoY expected and acc...Read More

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who has repeatedly criticized loose central bank policies and has forcefully sounded the alarm on the upside risks of the current bout of inflation, has warned that global financial markets seem to be pricing in slow growth and low real interest rates for the next several years."The stimulus that we've enacted is...Read More

Kitco News, Released on Released on 11/12/21Bitcoin, stocks, and gold are all poised for major moves, but not all moves will be equal. Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at InTheMoneyStocks.com discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, which of these assets are most likely to breakout to the upside.0:00 - Bitcoin12:29 - Stocks17:00 - Federal Reserve22:55 - GoldGareth Soloway is a profe...Read More

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,Let's Dance: Buy the credentials - Forget Reality, Baitballs and Financial Ergot!"Where The Dance is, there you will find the Devil..."Despite Global uncertainty, rising inflation, and potential slowdown, markets remain Euphoric. All irrational markets eventually pop. How much longer can the current market mood be sustained? Longer than we think...One...Read More

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management; read this post after first reading "The Most Important Question For The Market Is Identifying The Driver Behind Record Low Negative Real Rates"Un-Orthodoxy"Rising inflation and growing government debt may not seem like the natural ingredients to lower longer-term real yields," explained Marcel, our Head of Research, our investment t...Read More

McClellan Financial Publications, IncPosted Nov 17, 2021Nov 12, 2021The price of gold and the Japanese yen are fellow-travelers, correlating very strongly most of the time.Occasionally they disagree,and when they do that can be useful information. Because of this relationship, a sentiment indication that is useful for the yen can also be useful for gold prices.This week’s chart shows data fr...Read More

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,Let's discuss leverage and where we are in the investment cycle.Despite huge stock market gains over the last decade, U.S. pensions are hundreds of billions of dollars short of what they expect to need to pay public worker retirement benefits.As a result of underperformance Retirement Fund Giant Calpers Votes to Use Leverage, More Alternative Assets...Read More

After unexpectedly tumbling in September, US housing starts and permits were expected to rebound modestly in October, but the picture was more mixed than hoped for.US housing starts unexpectedly fell for the second straight month (-0.7% MoM vs +1.5% MoM exp) but US building permits rose more than expected (+4.0% MoM vs +2.8%) from the downward revised 7.8% MoM slump in September)...Source: Bloombe...Read More