By Bloomberg markets live commentator and former Lehman trader Mark CudmoreU.K. breakeven rates at the highest levels this century aren't yet high enough...We're entering the eye of the earnings season and the message from corporates is already coming through loud and clear: prices will climb a chunk further over the coming months, even as output is impaired. Every day brings fresh news of suppl...Read More

While cryptocurrencies have been stealing the headlines recently with record highs amid 'inflation hedge' narratives, commodities have put in a strong performance amid supply chain shocks and unprecedented demand interference (monetary/fiscal policy). As everything from copper to crude and aluminum to zinc has soared, one metal has lagged...But, as Bloomberg reports, two of the biggest n...Read More

It's remarkable that just last April, West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at a negative $40. Well, fast forward to today when moments ago, the US black gold grade just topped $85 for the first time since 2014, the landmark in a global energy crunch that has seen prices soar. Brent traded about 150 cents higher as the spread between the two grades has narrowed sharply in recent weeks.Oil...Read More

By Bloomberg macro commentator and analyst Tommi UtoslahtiA global bond market meltdown is only a matter of time. One fine morning, traders will wake up to find all benchmark yields sharply higher, 10 to 20 basis points or more, and no buyers around.Bond price indicators are flashing deep red right now, from decade-high inflation expectations to waning auction demand and whispers of depressed l...Read More

Kitco News, Released on Released on 10/26/21Last time Bitcoin hit an all-time high in 2017, the price corrected and stayed flat for 2 years before regaining momentum in 2020. What will happen this time?0:00 - Stagflation2:51 - Biggest macroeconomic risks7:59 - Inflation hedges14:15 - Bitcoin20:00 - Crypto winter bitcoin, economy, inflation, lyn aldenLyn Alden: Bitcoin crashed last time it hit...Read More

"In stark contrast with the mindset of corporate leaders who are dealing daily with the reality of higher and persistent inflationary pressures, the transitory concept has managed to retain an almost mystical hold on the thinking of many policy makers," El-Erian wrote in an Oct. 25 op-ed in Bloomberg."The longer this persists, the greater the risk of a historic policy error whose negative impl...Read More

Submitted by OilPrice.comThe potential for a knock-on effect of rising fuel prices to be felt by other industries is becoming more likely, as oil and gas prices continue to rise to an all-time high, companies are finding it hard to maintain their costs and may have to shift this burden to the consumer any day now. Petrol prices have risen higher and higher this year, as oil makes a comeback in 20...Read More

We've been writing about the evolving global supply shock for some time (most recently today when we addressed what may be required to normalize the supply chain bottlenecks). And yet, every day we read about another dramatic commodity spike or factory shutdown.In a recent report from Deutsche Bank's chief FX strategist George Saravelos, he discusses three sets of charts. They point to a...Read More

Last night we noted the Czechs had the dubious honor of suffering the first yield curve inversion of this cycle...The first inversion of many pic.twitter.com/wNPpbhcbM6- zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 28, 2021Then overnight saw the stress spread to Australia's bond market, as a massive move higher in 2Y Yields undoubtedly triggered chaos in risk control departments.And that VaR shock is now s...Read More

With the Atlanta Fed cutting its GDPNow estimate to just 0.2% yesterday...... there were big worries that today the BEA could reveal a shocker of a number, one far below the rapidly falling consensus estimate of 2.6%. Well, the Q3 GDP number just came out and it was bad, but not nearly as bad as it could have been: at 2.0%, it did indeed miss the 2.6% consensus by a lot but it could have been far...Read More

Having slipped back to COVID-crisis lows, the final print for UMich sentiment was very modestly higher than the preliminary October data but Current Conditions dipped further as Expectations rose a smidge from early October but are down from September.Current Conditions are actually at their weakest since the crisis lows in April 2020.Source: Bloomberg"The positive impact of higher income expectat...Read More

Markit's US Manufacturing PMI tumbled in October, from 60.70 in September to 59.2 in preliminary October data to a final print of 58.4, tracking the dismal disappointing slide in actual US macroeconomic data.ISM's US Manufacturing survey also slipped lower in October (from 61.1 to 60.8) but printed better than the expected 60.5.Source: BloombergThat is the lowest Manufacturing PMI since...Read More

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,Market Back To Extreme OverboughtWith earnings season in full swing, stocks continued to push higher this week. Even disappointing earnings from Starbucks, Apple, and Amazon couldn't keep the bulls down much. So far, the earnings season has pretty much aligned with expectations. As noted by FactSet:"Overall, 56% of the companies in the S&P...Read More

Last week may have seen the peak of earnings season with the GAMMA companies (fka as FAAMG) reporting earnings that left quite a bit to be desired, but it gets even busier this week with the Fed's Wednesday taper announcement, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report and a slew of other events taking place in the coming five days.In addition to two very closely watched meetings from the RBA (Tue...Read More

McClellan Financial Publications, IncPosted Nov 4, 2021Oct 29, 2021The message from uranium prices is that gold prices are headed higher.And I have no idea why this relationship works.Six years ago, I uncovered an interesting leading indication relationship, wherein the movements of uranium prices tend to show up again about 7 months later in the movements of gold prices.I cannot think of any reas...Read More

Initial jobless claims improved further last week with 'just' 269k Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits...Source: BloombergKentucky and California saw the biggest jump in jobless claims while Missouri and Florida saw the biggest drop...That leaves the total number of Americans on some form of government dole just above 2.6 million......the lowest since pre-pandemic-lockdown.....Read More

After two months of dismal job reports, the BLS finally redeemed itself when moments ago it reported that in October the US gained some 531K jobs, well above the 450K consensus exp and above the 500K whisper number. The gain in payrolls was also bigger than all but 10 of the 75 forecasts in Bloomberg's survey.As Bloomberg calculates, if payroll gains stay at the same pace as October's, in eight mo...Read More

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,The facts of surreal yet broken (and hence increasingly controlled and desperate) financial markets are becoming harder to deny and ignore. Below, we look at the blunt evidence of control rather than the fork-tongued words of policy makers and ask a simple question: How long can lies & control supplant reality?The Great Disconnect: Tanki...Read More

The market's rate-hike expectations are surging higher this morning following the way hotter than expected CPI print. Additionally, perpelxing double-speak from Biden is not helping as he reflects on The Fed's "independence" while implying the need to 'do something about inflation!!!!':"And I want to reemphasize my commitment to the independence of the federal re...Read More

Following yesterday's US PPI print at record highs, overnight we saw Chinese producer prices rising at their fastest pace in 26 years, and this morning's US consumer price data was expected to show yet another non-transitory surge in inflation... but the actual surge was far bigger than expected.US Consumer prices soared 6.2% YoY in October, far higher than the +5.9% YoY expected and acc...Read More