Critics of "New Age" monetary policy have been predicting that central banks would eventually run out of ways to trick people into borrowing money. There are at least three reasons to wonder if that time has finally come: Wage inflation is acceleratingNormally, towards the end of a cycle companies have trouble finding enough workers to keep up with their rising sales. So they start paying new hire...Read More
Critics of "New Age" monetary policy have been predicting that central banks would eventually run out of ways to trick people into borrowing money. There are at least three reasons to wonder if that time has finally come: Wage inflation is acceleratingNormally, towards the end of a cycle companies have trouble finding enough workers to keep up with their rising sales. So they start paying new hire...Read More
Every decision humans make is colored by their past. Despite vast progress, we are still prey to the oldest tool of learning: social conditioning and the pressure of the group.What was once a key to survival follows us into the modern age. It shapes our decisions, the careers we choose, and at times even forces us to act against our better judgment. But we can break free and shape our own decisi...Read More
By Ed Steer10 February 2018 -- SaturdayYESTERDAY in GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM and PALLADIUM The gold price didn't do much of anything anywhere on Planet Earth on Friday, but I suppose the reality of the situation was that it wasn't allowed that luxury. The gold price traded in a ten dollar price range yesterday -- and the high and low ticks aren't worth looking up. Gold was closed in New York on...Read More
By John MauldinBurn RateOff-Budget Game0% Financing EndsLender SearchCoup de GraceSonoma, San Diego and SIC, and ElsewhereLast week's turbulence shined a harsh spotlight on the stock market. Appropriately so, if that's where your investments are. But in the hubbub many investors are missing the deeper and far more urgent bond market issues.We already knew interest rates were rising. Recent data...Read More
By Michael J. KosaresCan we use volatility to diagnose financial bubbles? Lessons from 40 historical bubblesSwiss Finance Institute/Didier Sornette, Peter Cauwels and Georgi Smilyan, ETH Zurich/7-24-2018"We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible commonalities and check empirically whether volatility might be used as an indicat...Read More
By Gary TanashianUS Stock MarketWe will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I'd like to focus on the US stock market.Let's cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during...Read More
By Steve St. AngeloAs the Dow Jones Index continues to drop like a rock, the worst is yet to come. Today, investors once again plowed into the markets because they are following the Mainstream Financial advice of BUYING THE DIP. Unfortunately, those who bought the dip before yesterday's 1,032 point drop and the 400+ point drop this afternoon, have thrown good money after bad.Of course, we co...Read More
Can we use volatility to diagnose financial bubbles? Lessons from 40 historical bubbles"We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible commonalities and check empirically whether volatility might be used as an indicator or an early warning signal of an unsustainable price increase and the associated crash. Some researchers and finance...Read More
Consider the hypothesis that, all things being equal, a price will maintain its ruling trend indefinitely. This is irrespective whether the trend is up or down or sideways, or steep or shallow. Since we know prices changes are determined by the ratio of supply to demand, it implies the ratio tends to remain relatively constant over time, as real and potential buyers and sellers continue to react a...Read More
By Ed Steer10 February 2018 -- SaturdayYESTERDAY in GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM and PALLADIUM The gold price didn't do much of anything anywhere on Planet Earth on Friday, but I suppose the reality of the situation was that it wasn't allowed that luxury. The gold price traded in a ten dollar price range yesterday -- and the high and low ticks aren't worth looking up. Gold was closed in New York on...Read More
First, let's start off this weekend's update remembering that gold is the ultimate cycle driver across the broader PM complex. Friday's late afternoon post shows you this and how volatility in the Stock Market can impact silver and the miners. However, If gold remains bullish, the rest of the sector should eventually follow. For that to play out however, Friday's lows will likely need to hold. I...Read More
By John MauldinBurn RateOff-Budget Game0% Financing EndsLender SearchCoup de GraceSonoma, San Diego and SIC, and ElsewhereLast week's turbulence shined a harsh spotlight on the stock market. Appropriately so, if that's where your investments are. But in the hubbub many investors are missing the deeper and far more urgent bond market issues.We already knew interest rates were rising. Recent data...Read More
Such a fun month is February! One strives to regain liquidity following December's holidays and January's quarterly tax payments. And who doesn't love Valentine's Day?Financially, February is not a month over which there is much fuss. For gold, February is generally quite neutral: of the 43 Februarys from 1975 through 2017, gold has finished up 22 times and down 21 times for a median net gain of 0...Read More
Critics of "New Age" monetary policy have been predicting that central banks would eventually run out of ways to trick people into borrowing money. There are at least three Continue...Read More
By Michael J. KosaresCan we use volatility to diagnose financial bubbles? Lessons from 40 historical bubblesSwiss Finance Institute/Didier Sornette, Peter Cauwels and Georgi Smilyan, ETH Zurich/7-24-2018"We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible commonalities and check empirically whether volatility might be used as an indicat...Read More
Can we use volatility to diagnose financial bubbles? Lessons from 40 historical bubbles"We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible commonalities and check empirically whether volatility might be used as an indicator or an early warning signal of an unsustainable price increase and the associated crash. Some researchers and finance...Read More
By Gary TanashianUS Stock MarketWe will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I'd like to focus on the US stock market.Let's cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during...Read More
Two Friday's ago, (January 26th) the Dow Jones made its latest BEV Zero, new all-time high. Nine trading days later (Thursday Feb 8th) it broke below its BEV -10% line in a very dramatic fashion.The BEV plot seen below begins at the absolute low of the October 2007 to March 2009 -54% bear market. The post credit-crisis advance took the Dow Jones up over 20,000 points in nine years. But you wouldn'...Read More