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Bullish for base in 2018

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

Although base metals are under pressure in the short term, we have a bullish bias to our 2018 price forecasts given the supportive background of solid global economic growth and the fact that all six base metal markets look set to be in fundamental deficit this year. But each has a slightly different supply-side story and this aspect should be the main differentiator. For example, zinc's narrative...Read More

Aluminium: Stronger than expected

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

Despite Chinese winter smelter production cuts generally falling short of expectations and domestic stocks continuing to climb - both of which suggest the market remains far more comfortably supplied at this point than aluminium bulls had been anticipating - prices still rallied into the year-end to reach $2,290/tonne for the first time since March 2012.And after a New Year pull-back the strength...Read More

Copper: Tighter balance, higher prices

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

Copper prices were working lower during most of December and in the absence of any bullish triggers we had been expecting that trend to continue. But in late December, fund buying picked up aggressively, driving prices to a fresh multi-year high of $7,203/tonne. There was little fundamental justification for this and we should consider it a warning that speculators and investors feeling optimistic...Read More

Lead: Steady price uptrend continuing

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

Lead prices remain on their steady uptrend since the summer lows last year and in January have been eroding resistance around October's 6-year high above $2,600/tonne. We expect the underlying strengthening fundamentals, especially on the supply side, to maintain the uptrend this year. Primary producers may well struggle to respond to higher lead prices and we doubt there is much hoarded scrap aro...Read More

India's Overwhelming Steel Projections?

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

The Indian government's plans of hitting 300 million tonnes of steel capacity by 2030 sounds overambitious in the current scenario given that output only managed to reach the 101 million tonne mark in 2017 - indicating three-fold (Read More

Steelmakers' improvement continues but industry still under pressure

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

After suffering for some seven years through to 2015, the world's steelmakers have had cause for cheer over the past couple of years. After some heavy losses and write-downs, they finally appear to have emerged from the wreckage of the global financial crisis. An economic upswing has taken root in most regions of the world, Chinese steel output and export growth has slowed noticeably, and steel pr...Read More

Ilva and the Italian flat steel market - poised for a change?

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

For a number of years problems at Ilva, the largest steelworks in Europe, have been casting shadow over the performance of the whole Italian steel industry. Will an acquisition of Ilva by a consortium led by ArcelorMittal, now in its final stage, be a game changer for the market?Following multiple reports of environmental and health problems caused by the Taranto plant, in 2013 Ilva was placed und...Read More

UPDATE 9-Oil dips but bounces off low on hopes for demand boost from China stimulus

October 09, 2018 / in.investing.com

(Updates prices, adds commentary)By Collin EatonHOUSTON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices almost fully recovered from a sharp drop on Monday, paring losses as investors bet China's economic stimulus moves would lift crude demand in the world's No. 2 economy.Traders sent global benchmark Brent crude tumbling below $83 per barrel early in the session after China's central bank on Sunday slashed lenders'...Read More

Modest changes in Chinese rebar demand spark acute price rises so can the reverse be true?

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

China ended steel production in all of the country's illegal induction furnaces by the end of June last year, it ha claimed.Most operators in China are primarily small private mills that use low-quality scrap to produce substandard rebar. This is mixed with grade III (HRB400) rebar and sold at a discount to construction contractors.For a long period, the government had neither a record of nor cont...Read More

Indian shares snap three sessions of losses to close higher

October 09, 2018 / in.investing.com

* NSE index up 0.31 pct, BSE ends 0.28 pct higher* Reliance Industries (NS:RELI) top boost* Metals dragOct 8 (Reuters) - Indian shares snapped three sessions of losses and ended higher on Monday, after swinging between gains and losses through the day, as oil marketing companies continued to drive gains, while metal and some non-banking financial stocks dragged the investor sentiment.The Indian...Read More

REFILE-UPDATE 1-Oil drops 1 pct as U.S. considers granting some waivers on Iran crude sanctions

October 09, 2018 / in.investing.com

(Refiles to add 'UPDATE 1' to headline)* Recasts with 1 pct price drop* Analysts warn of limited spare capacity* Hedge funds cut bullish crude futures positions* U.S. oil drilling stalls: https://tmsnrt.rs/2IK63ETBy Henning GloysteinSINGAPORE, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil prices fell by more than 1 percent on Monday after Washington said it may grant waivers to sanctions against Iran's oil ex...Read More

No stopping strong global EV sales growth

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

China's month-on-month new electric vehicles (NEV) sales rebounded in August after month-on-month declines in June and July. The drop in sales between May and June was the first drop since September 2016, but Fastmarkets MB had expected Chinese NEV sales to dip temporarily after the June subsidy changes came into effect because consumers and NEV manufacturers would have to adjust to the new subsid...Read More

Is there room for China to import MPI once again?

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

Seaborne pig iron has become relatively competitive versus ferrous scrap over the past year in most regions, and China is no exception. As the first chart below illustrates, the gap between the MBR's proxy for imported pig iron price in China and the Metal Bulletin's Chinese domestic heavy melt scrap price assessment had shrunk by late 2017. The premium averaged $17 per tonne this year to date, co...Read More

Is China's lean toward scrap sustainable?

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

The closure of some induction furnaces in China in 2016 followed by the government's crackdown on all unlicensed IFs in mid-2017 freed up some scrap volumes, albeit arguably of low-quality material. Chinese domestic scrap prices came under pressure from the increased supply, which prevented them from keeping pace with the rise in steel and other raw material markets in the fourth quarter of 2016;...Read More

A dramatic year for metallurgical coal

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

About a year ago, metallurgical coal embarked on a long journey of great volatility and disruption. It emerged as the best performing commodity in 2016 after several years of declining prices. Prices have dropped and spiked several times since then and the volatility continued in 2017 with a cyclone disrupting the market and eventually also affecting the way the commodity is priced. Although therm...Read More

Responding to rising coking coal prices

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

The past year, soaring metallurgical coal prices have greatly affected the costs involved in producing pig iron, a form of crude iron which is the product of the blast furnace. Metal Bulletin Research's Global Steel Cost Service details how coking coal and coke costs usually averaged around 35% of total pig iron production expenditure in 2014 and 2015 while iron ore stood for the majority of costs...Read More

SILICON SNAPSHOT: Sparse trade on participants' retreat

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

Key data from the pricing sessions in London on Friday October 5....Read More

TURKEY FERROUS SCRAP: Local prices up despite weak demand

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

Turkish domestic scrap prices have increased over the past week, in line with rising imported scrap values, sources said on Monday October 8....Read More

LME WEEK 2018: Innovation in the value chain: how new tech is shaping the market

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

Technology is playing a significant role in transforming the way the metals industry develops and operates. And from production through to trading, the question to be answered is how the industry can benefit from the increasing use of technology across the metals value chain....Read More

LME WEEK 2018: Base metals panel: lead prices stable but zinc underperforms

October 09, 2018 / www.metalbulletin.com

To mark the start of LME Week 2018, which is being held at various locations across London this week, the London Metal Exchange's analysis of the base metals market has begun, with an initial focus on zinc and lead....Read More

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