We tend to spend a lot of timelooking into the rearview mirror, especially when under duress.Connected to this is somethingpsychologists call "recency bias." This simply means that what hashappened in the near to intermediate past tends to inform and influence us asto how we should behave in the future.The 2011 to early 2019 precious metals bear saga was broken only by a six-month bullhi...Read More

European leaders stroke a historic deal that could be a game-changer and provide a support for the euro and gold against the U.S. dollar.Historic deal. Pivotal moment for Europe. On Monday, the EU leaders agreed on a massive economic stimulus plan, after a long and crotchety summit. If passed through the European Parliament and ratified by all EU states, the European Commission could borrow 750 bi...Read More

The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Aluminium: Capped by oversupplyA lack of a meaningful supply adjustment to the Covid-19 demand hit is keeping the aluminium physical market oversupplied and weighing on prices, limiting the success of more buoyant macro and technical forces on prices. Our premium forecasts are under review in light of threats from the U...Read More

The torrid rally in thesilver market reached a major milestone this morning as prices hit $21/oz.On Monday, the silverspot price tracked by Money Metals Exchange closed at $20.12 (thefutures market price settled at $20.19).That marks the firstabove-$20 close for silver since 2016.The white-hot silver marketis busting through some resistance levels that should clear the way for higherhighs ahead. S...Read More

The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.?EUR? US domestic prices for hot-rolled coil have moved down in line with our expectations, averaging $508 per tonne in July compared with our forecast price of $519 per tonne. While we are forecasting coil price increases in August, we have revised our expectations downward. Although steelmakers are reporting improving dema...Read More

It has been quite some time since I have published an article on gold. Unfortunately, we have become so busy at Elliottwavetrader that I simply have not had the time to publish many public articles.So, as we are approaching an inflection point, I thought it would be an appropriate time to publish a public article.Now, I have to be honest. I am quite disappointed at what I am reading publicly about...Read More

Our research team believes Crude Oil and Energy, in general, has stalled near major resistance and maybe setting up a big downside move as the COVID-19 virus continues to roil regional and global economies.  The recent news that the COVID-19 virus cases have skyrocketed suggests further economic shutdowns may push oil prices below $35 ppb over the next few weeks and months.  Our research...Read More

The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.The price for steel scrap in China has risen recently, amid high mill operating rates and at a time of heavy rain, but it remains at a premium to hot metal, we estimate. Heavy rains in China tend to increase the moisture content of iron ore stockpiles, which can cause issues during the sintering process, and this may have en...Read More

"...could extend to the $35.00/$36.00 level before it ends."by Captain Ewave of CaptainEwaveCaptain Ewave"Stunning Silver: Big C Wave Action"Email: [email protected]Website: www.captainewave.comAug 6, 2020Silver:Update & Tactics:Our wave -iv- correction ended at the 22.46 low.We are now rallying in wave -v- of (i), which could extend to the 35.00/36.00 level before it ends.We now breaking through...Read More

The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Trading activity at a minimumWelded pipe trading activity has been slow globally over July 2020, and while the holiday-period slowdown is partly to blame in several countries, disruptions to projects caused by the Covid-19 pandemic were obviously the main cause. In this context, substrate costs were driving much of the prici...Read More

In this week's advisory, sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews the most recent market news, celebrates old-school communication techniques and offers strategies for investing in the dog days of summer.As the month of July moves into its final ten-day stretch, I see NASDAQ records falling left and right as the drivers of fear that dominated in March are now "yesterday's news." Rising second waves...Read More

We’ve been micro-managing silver lately in NFTRH and NFTRH+ updates and that is for a reason. The reason is that gold’s wild little bro has been rallying – in what is turning out to be 5 clear waves – since the March crash.When that crash reversed, my view, and hence the NFTRH view was that it was likely to have been a horrifying shakeout of the silver bulls that due to its...Read More

Previously,I have shown how the Dow has actually outperformed silver and gold since thecreation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.Today, if silver had the same kind ofperformance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in1913, then it would have topped out at $225.20 [(29568.6/78.78)*.6). Yet, itonly topped out around $50 in 1980 and 2011.In 1973 silver was in a similar type ofpos...Read More

The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts is ready to view.Global markets for coated steel continue to run at different speeds with regards to pricing at the start of the summer season in the northern hemisphere. In Asia, prices continue to rise although, as we note in our Asia analysis this month, much of this is merely cost inflation with steelmakers passing on higher substrate cos...Read More

China’s economy grew 3.2 percent in Q2 2020. The expansion was above expectations, but it does not have to sink gold.Last week, China reported that its economy grew 3.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, following a 6.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter, as the chart below shows. Importantly, the actual growth rate beat the market expectations of a 2.5 percent...Read More

The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.This month's key ferro-alloy forecast highlights:Numerous ore and alloy markets enjoyed upward pricing momentum in the first half 2020, with supply-side constraints supporting prices despite collapsing demand from steelmakers and other key end users. While supply side issues related to Covid-19 lockdowns have been resolved,...Read More

Last week, we wrote that gold miners flashed an“extremely overbought” signal, which they had only flashed once in the past –almost right at the 2016 top. The GoldMiners Bullish Percent Index recently moved to the highest levelthat it could reach – 100.The only other case when the index was at 100, wasin mid-2016. We marked this situation with a vertical dashedline. Did min...Read More

The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.In previous reports, we noted that upside risks to our forecasts existed. These were based on Chinese steel production, and in turn alloy consumption, outperforming our expectations.Chinese crude steel production is rising each month in a year-on-year comparison, prompting our revised view that Chinese alloy consumption will...Read More

As the world's economic engine starts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for certain key commodities are a good indicator of the rebound strength.The S&P GSCI Commodity Index (Chart 1) is a collection of24 commodities from all commodity sectors (energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals). Since 2011, the index has been in a...Read More

"Hope and fear look different on a chart"Recently in these pages, we noted that bull markets in stocks tend to end with "a subtly slowing ascent" rather than with a final "spike" higher, as many investors believe. Historical examples were provided.It was also pointed out that, by contrast, commodities do tend to end major uptrends with a price spike.The Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Princ...Read More