Proposed changes to the London Metal Exchange's market structure may actually have the opposite effect to its desired intention: destroying liquidity, not increasing it.Attention has been focused on the proposed permanent closure of the LME ring, the incentivization of electronic trade and changes to margin methodology, which were central issues in the exchange's recently closed discussion paper.B...Read More
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's plans to list ferro-chrome futures, potentially this year, will bring welcomed hedging opportunities and may weaken the dominance of China's stainless steel mills in the ore and alloy markets, participants told Fastmarkets.While no definite date or specifications of the ferro-chrome futures have been announced, Fastmarkets asked participants what changes these contr...Read More
Usually after a London Metal Exchange discussion paper there is a decent idea of what the outcome is likely to be. But this time around, it seems much harder to tell which path the LME will take. The proposals under debate include the permanent closure of the exchange's open outcry trading floor, known as the ring, which dates back to 1877. They also include the incentivization of electronic trade...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of base metals analysts are ready to view.Aluminium: SHFE tailwind for LME pricesAs we are entering the traditional strong demand season, we expect Chinese aluminium demand to show further recovery, and we expect demand from existing end-user sectors, new infrastructure projects and the export sector to show some increases. As a result, we believe that S...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of base metals analysts are ready to view, including an upgrade to our aluminium price forecasts.Aluminium: Price forecasts raisedWe correctly expected the macro reflationary theme to raise the prices for all base metals but, with it being the base metal with by far the weakest fundamentals, we had expected the price of aluminium to underperform relative...Read More
It seems fitting that the year we are expecting to see an unprecedented rise in US government spending and money-printing to spur an economic recovery, marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the gold standard.Done at the time to fight an economic crisis, we are still feeling the effects of this disastrous decision, five decades on.In this article, we explain why President Nixon did what he did,...Read More
Now that stocks closed at new all time highs, thecorrection is officially over. And what little rest stock bulls could claimlast week, arrived on Friday. Yet, the bull is strong enough to defend the3,900 zone, and charge higher the same day. Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling theeconomic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill justin, and a $2T i...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.These include an increase in our copper mine disruption estimates, upgrades to our production outlook for Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI), a smaller refined zinc surplus, and an upgrade to our zinc price forecasts.Aluminium: Big disconnect between price and fundamentalsAluminium has extended its uptrend on the London Metal...Read More
Mainstream media and the large mining companies are finally catching on to what we at AOTH have been saying for the past two years: the copper market is heading for a severe supply shortage due to a perfect storm of under-exploration/ lack of discovery of new deposits, clashing with a huge increase in demand due to electrification and decarbonization.Dramatic price riseCopper is trading over $4.00...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view. We also review our price forecasting accuracy for the second quarter 2020.Q2 2020 price forecast performance review According to the results of Fastmarkets' Apex for the second quarter of 2020 published this week, Fastmarkets' base metals research team was the second most accurate price forecaster for nickel (99.06%), lead...Read More
Many investors sense that the country, and the world, has drifted into uncharted territory.The last year has been extraordinary. There have been COVID lockdowns, a disputed presidential election, and multi-trillion-dollar federal deficits and bailouts. The Federal Reserve has injected more money into markets than ever before.This insanity showed up in the physical gold and silver markets.Bullion d...Read More
Since its peak in the spring of 2020, the U.S. dollar index has lost almost 12 percent, and it could decline even further, thus supporting gold prices.There is a weakness in the U.S. dollar. Let’s start off by taking a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad trade-weighted dollar index has been declining recently. Since its peak in late March 2020, the greenback has lost almost 12...Read More
It’s all connected. The Eurozone’sunderperformance boosts the USD, thus placing pressure on gold and the ETFs.So, which ETFs will suffer most?A large part of yesterday’sfree version of the analysis focused on the Eurozone’s economicoutlook and how it affects the precious metals. We’ll eventually get to Europeagain later in today’s analysis, but let’s first...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts is ready to view.In both Europe and the United States, the prices of most flat steel products have pushed to record highs in the weeks to Monday March 22. They remain slightly below their mid-2008 peaks in China, but are at multi-year highs there too.This illustrates in part the heavier consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for steelmakers in...Read More
Dear Reader,You come to our website looking for market answers.Well, with the help of our friends at Elliott Wave International, we are happy to offer you a new, free opportunity to see what's likely next for cotton, soybeans and crude oil -- for the entire 2021. EWI is the world's largest independent market-forecasting firm. Every year, their Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy records an in-...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Chinese seamless linepipe prices have jumped by $120 per tonne over the past month because of rising costs. With iron ore prices remaining elevated, scrap costs on the rise, and activity at steel mills curbed by environmental measures, steel billet has become difficult to source, bolstering the prices for seamless linep...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view. This month's key North American steel forecast highlights: US hot-rolled coil prices continued to move in line with our forecasts in February, although actual prices again modestly exceeded our forecasts. Domestic HRC prices averaged $1,194 per ton in February, exceeding our forecast price of $1,150 per ton for the month. U...Read More
Forget gold and silver for a moment.Do you hear the music? Yes, it’s coming from the mining ETFs club. But how longwill the party last?And more importantly, why miners, you mayask? Because miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally.Afterclosing only $0.10 below myinitial downside target of $31 on Mar. 1 , the GDX ETF could be ripe for an upward revision. Able to ignore much...Read More
The conclusion of various holiday seasons, the end of winter, the progress of Covid-19 vaccination programs, and the will to return to more normal ways of life were all strong positives for the global long steel products market, the International Rebar Producers & Exporters Association (Irepas) said last week.The current situation and sentiment were generally very good in the world's long steel ma...Read More
Stocks sharply reversed intraday, and closed just wherethey opened the prior Friday. That indicates quite some pressures, quite somesearching for direction in this correction that isn‘t over just yet. Stockshave had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselvesin some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-termrates did strike. So did inflati...Read More