The following is an update of a previousarticle: During the 2008 financial crisis the Fedsignificantly increased the US monetary base to keep the system from collapse.They are currently in a similar situation, and have done (is doing) the exactsame thing.Here is a chart of the US monetary base toillustrate the similarity: With the 2008 actions they were able to avoidthe collapse until now. Will th...Read More
The US automotive industry's recovery is a tale of two trends - production and sales - and while a strong rebound in production has a more immediate impact on demand for steel, so far the bounce back has been greater in sales.This has translated into a slower rebound in steel demand, American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) chief economist Timothy Gill said. "The auto market situation has certainl...Read More
Last week, I put out an article outlining my expectation for a pullback in GLD before we head to the 200+ region. Within the comments section, I outlined my plan as to how I am going to play for a potential pullback. However, that pullback has not yet materialized.For those that have followed me closely for years, you know that I have been heavily long physical metals and mining stocks since I sta...Read More
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts oil and discusses what he sees ahead for the commodity. Compared to the wild volatility that we witnessed back in the spring, trading in oil has become very light and subdued, with volatility in it dropping to a very low level, and as a result many traders are losing interest in it. It is quiet—too quiet—and complacency towards it is now rife, but a...Read More
Most Italian steel producers plan to stop production for summer maintenance in August, but some have changed their schedule this year and plan shorter stoppages due to demand recovering from the Covid-19-related lockdown in March-April, sources told Fastmarkets. Long steel Major steelmakers in Italy are expected to stop all operations during the second week of August for the usual summer maintenan...Read More
Gold has jumped above $1,850 amid expectations of new stimulus, worries about the pace of economic recovery, and concerns about rising tensions between the U.S. and China. Houston, we have a problem! Please take a look at the chart below that presents the U.S. initial jobless claims. What do you see? Yes, you are right! The number of people claiming unemployment benefits has recently risen. To be...Read More
With silver breaking out decisively to the upside, bears are running for cover.We had noted in our July 13th News Alert, “We are paying especially close attention to the bull vs. bear tug-of-war in the silver market around $19/oz. If the bulls yank prices decisively above that level on a strong close, short covering by capitulating bears could help drive a powerful breakout rally.”That...Read More
The gold price made a new all-time nominal high today at $1,945 per ounce. This move should not come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to the current financial landscape. The FED has injected an unprecedented amount of new money/debt into the economy since March in efforts to avoid a collapse from the impact of the Covid-19 virus and subsequent restrictions of business activity globally. Ov...Read More
As shown in the graph below, the firsthalf of 2020 produced an unusual change in the relationship between goldprices, stock prices and recessions, something that has only happened twicebefore in the last fifty years. Each of the two previous times this hasoccurred after a long run up in stock prices, it has been part of acyclical change to a cycle favoring gold over stocks for a decade or morether...Read More
During the bull market years between 2000 and 2011 the US dollar and currencies played a key role in the PM complex bull market. Tonight I would like to go back and visit some of these old charts and see how they pertain to our current bull market.Lets start with a simple GOLD:USD ratio chart that goes back to the 2011 all time high in gold. The bottom for the ratio came in toward the end of 2015...Read More
The move we saw in Silver early this week to new 6-year high price levels, above $22.60, is quite likely the biggest upside move in Silver since the bottom in March 2020 – after the US stock market collapsed because of the COVID-19 virus event. This new rally in Silver is likely the move we’ve been suggesting to our followers relating to a series of measured upside price moves totaling...Read More
Here are five Fastmarkets stories you might have missed on Monday August 3 that are worth another look.The year 2020 has been the ultimate stress test for commodity market participants and will stay challenging amid significantly impaired consumer demand trends due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the chief executive officer of Concord Resources. Mark Hansen said the economy is operatin...Read More
We tend to spend a lot of timelooking into the rearview mirror, especially when under duress.Connected to this is somethingpsychologists call "recency bias." This simply means that what hashappened in the near to intermediate past tends to inform and influence us asto how we should behave in the future.The 2011 to early 2019 precious metals bear saga was broken only by a six-month bullhi...Read More
Zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) rose for the second consecutive month in July after hitting a 19-month low in May, with spot availability increasing slightly.Fastmarkets' price assessment for zinc spot concentrate TCs, cif China was $165-185 per tonne on Friday July 31, up by $5 from $160-180 per tonne on June 26.Mining companies are beginning to recover lost production after Covid-19 pan...Read More
European leaders stroke a historic deal that could be a game-changer and provide a support for the euro and gold against the U.S. dollar.Historic deal. Pivotal moment for Europe. On Monday, the EU leaders agreed on a massive economic stimulus plan, after a long and crotchety summit. If passed through the European Parliament and ratified by all EU states, the European Commission could borrow 750 bi...Read More
Amid a hot market for copper, China's smelters are jumping in on a profitable niche business dominated by traders.Eight major copper smelting and mining companies - China Gold, China Copper, Baiyin, Daye, Yantai Guoxing, Jinchuan, Minmetals and Nanguo - are lobbying for licenses to import and process complex concentrate, Fastmarkets has learned. In a race to receive final approv...Read More
The torrid rally in thesilver market reached a major milestone this morning as prices hit $21/oz.On Monday, the silverspot price tracked by Money Metals Exchange closed at $20.12 (thefutures market price settled at $20.19).That marks the firstabove-$20 close for silver since 2016.The white-hot silver marketis busting through some resistance levels that should clear the way for higherhighs ahead. S...Read More
The year 2020 has been the ultimate stress test for commodity market participants and will stay challenging amid significantly impaired consumer demand trends due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the chief executive officer of Concord Resources. Mark Hansen said the economy is operating on 70-90% of its usual demand strength due to the pandemic, with huge portions of previously high-demand g...Read More
Here are five Fastmarkets stories you might have missed on Monday August 3 that are worth another look.The year 2020 has been the ultimate stress test for commodity market participants and will stay challenging amid significantly impaired consumer demand trends due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the chief executive officer of Concord Resources. Mark Hansen said the economy is operatin...Read More
It has been quite some time since I have published an article on gold. Unfortunately, we have become so busy at Elliottwavetrader that I simply have not had the time to publish many public articles.So, as we are approaching an inflection point, I thought it would be an appropriate time to publish a public article.Now, I have to be honest. I am quite disappointed at what I am reading publicly about...Read More