The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

This we learn from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics:American productivity has increased 62% since 1979.But average real hourly pay (adjusted for inflation, that is) has scarcely increased 17% across the same space.That is, productivity has run 3.5 laps around wages since 1979.Thus the average American worker finds himself a hamster upon a wheel... jogging largely in place.Here our co-f...Read More

As the presidential election season heats up, I often find myself thinking, How could the outcome affect different areas of the market? You've probably asked yourself the same question at some point over the last few months, too.Before you get the wrong idea, no, I'm not about to wade into politics. That's not my focus.And I'm sure you'll be bombarded with political messages over the next few mont...Read More

"Extremism" is the new communism. Against this extremism stands "Our Democracy," prepared and fortified.Former British diplomat Mr. Alastaire Crooke:Just as the hegemonic West arose out of the Cold War era shaped and invigorated through dialectic opposition to communism (in the Western mythology), so we see today, a (claimed) totalizing "extremism" (whether of MAGA mode; or of the external variety...Read More

When scrolling through X (formerly Twitter), I usually hunt for juicy financial, economic, or political information that will inspire a newsletter piece.Last night, I came across a person I had never met who wrote the most immediately helpful thread I've ever seen. This thread was so brilliant that I created a bookmark list called "Best Advice" so I would never lose it. I knew right away that I mu...Read More

The term "woke" entered general circulation after George Floyd's dying and the fantastic cultural tumults that ensued.To be woke?To awaken to justice of the social variety.To awaken to the mishandling of Blacks by whites, of women by men, of the sexually heterodox by the sexually orthodox.Each governing institution of American society rubbed the sand from its previously slumbering eyes... and woke...Read More

I've been thinking about throwing my laptop out the window and sailing away to a deserted island this week to skip the NVDA earnings circus.That's probably not a practical idea. I can try to run but there's no way to avoid the most popular tech stock on the market revealing exactly how much the AI boom has grown over the past three months.It's going to be another noisy week as the three-ring fin...Read More

Baltimore's highly late sage, Henry Louis Mencken:The state or, to make matters more concrete, the government consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something th...Read More

Does anybody know what this shape-shifting chimera passed off as "our democracy" actually is? I will tell you. Like everything else in the blobocracy's tool bag these days, it's the opposite of what it appears to mean, namely:You, the demos, give us, officialdom, the power to take whatever we like from you: your savings, your liberty, your stuff, your identity and your posterity because we are t...Read More

Last week, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia proper, in the Kursk region (WWII historians are well aware of Kursk).Previously, Ukraine had not sent large-scale forces across the border into Russia proper.Map of Kursk region, courtesy of BBC.Ukraine sent in as many as six (likely understrength) brigades, supported by tanks and armored vehicles.Let's get real, though: That's not anywhere eno...Read More

Mr. Barry Ritholz of the eponymous Ritholtz Wealth Management:We were warned that deficit spending would crowd out private capital, choke off innovation and new company formation; it will send the costs of U.S. borrowing skyrocketing higher, making the debt impossible to manage; force the U.S. dollar to be radically devalued against all other currencies, thereby devastating the U.S. economy; cause...Read More

We attended, recently, a large stadium event of several dozen thousand.Signs everywhere informed us that cash was worthless within its walls.Vendors would not take it aboard.If you wished to purchase a frankfurter or any other edible, you could only acquire it through digital means.The stern, dour visage of Abraham Lincoln and the $5 bill he adorns the frankfurter-peddler would not accept.Nor...Read More

In Beckett's play Waiting for Godot, two tramps, Vladimir and Estragon, spend their time waiting for the titular character. He never arrives.It feels like that with this recession. But according to my friend and colleague Jim Rickards, we're already in one.There's compelling evidence that Jim's correct.But where's the market crash we ordered? That looks like it's never coming. And that's a good th...Read More

The Aug. 5 mini-crash was a potent reminder to investors that stock markets aren't a one-way street.It wasn't the end of the world. Market indexes down 3.0% in a day is a big deal, but it bears no comparison to October 1929 when the stock market fell 21% over two days or October 1987 when the stock market fell 21% in one day.What caused the Aug. 5 mini-crash? There are several suspects. The employ...Read More

If you're reading this, you managed to survive last week's brief but hair-raising stock market horror show.No, the world didn't end during the Yen carry trade panic. In fact, the S&P 500 finished the week lower by less than a tenth of a percent. Not bad! The 3% skid on Monday was the large-cap index's worst one-day performance since 2022. To all but erase that kind of one-day move in less than...Read More

The stock market has stabilized after Monday's major stumble for now. Don't sound the all-clear signal just yet.Yes, the U.S. markets look temporarily stabilized... while the Bank of Japan suffered a major anxiety attack, declaring it would turn around the very modest 25 basis point interest rate lift that crashed their markets for three days by 20% and also stated they would no longer even tr...Read More

When a relatively unknown individual steps on the political stage as a candidate for high office, both sides race to "define" the candidate and stamp his image in the public mind.Since the Democrats knew they would pick Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota for their VP candidate, they had time to pre-produce the public image.He's not particularly fit or good-looking. No problem! They pushed him as a folksy,...Read More

The sudden economic lockdown of March 2020, the world over, was one of the more shocking moments in history.It was initially advertised to be two weeks. But as time went on and the lockdown period was extended longer and longer, it became clear that the whole point was to wait for a vaccine.This was based on the evidence-free supposition that the whole population was under threat and that the shot...Read More

We are told the time has come for the Federal Reserve to wield its ax... and cut its target rate.We are further told that prevailing conditions may demand multiple axings.And that these adjustments to the overnight lending rate will work healthful impacts.They will invigorate the guttering economy with fresh gusts. They will soothe the nerve-wracked stock market.They will, in brief, pour down oil...Read More

Not surprisingly, the stock market bounced back today after yesterday's mini-crash the "buy the dip" theme is deeply entrenched in today's market.But don't make the mistake of thinking that stocks will continue on their way to record highs. There are too many red flags to ignore, although Wall Street would like you to ignore them.Meanwhile, yesterday's market swoon distracted people from a major...Read More

The stars were once again in their courses yesterday... oil was poured upon troubled waters... the dip was bought.All was peace.Following Monday's sharp unpleasantness, the stock market went trampolining back.Yet gravity reasserted itself today.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 234 points earthward.With it came the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.The first dropped 40 points. The second, 171.Y...Read More