The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) shocked most market watchers, including yours truly, with an aggressive 50 basis point cut, a mostly unexpected move. The Fed’s decision, which saw Governor Michelle Bowman dissenting, raises serious questions about the stability of the U.S. economy. The stark contrast between the cut and the rhetoric leading up to the meeting signals more...Read More

Today, the Fed did what I predicted it would do and cut interest rates. The "pivot" has finally arrived, ending the rate hike cycle that began in March 2022.I'll have much more to say about it in tomorrow's issue, so please tune in tomorrow. But today, I want to talk about the dangerous globalist threats to our freedoms that we presently face. Let's start with a question:Do you know these initials...Read More

We're still trying to process the latest assassination attempt on Donald Trump, which took place on Sunday in West Palm Beach. But while that's important to dissect as the election gets closer, it's important to consider a development I've been warning about for over two years.President Trump has long been an opponent of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or as I call them Biden Bucks. (Now t...Read More

The rate cut cycle you've waited for is finally here!Yes, the Fed is finally cutting this week and the noise couldn't be louder. Grab your earplugs! Trading could get a little wild as everyone jockeys for position heading into Wednesday afternoon.We're even dealing with some interesting new wrinkles as traders debate just how much the Fed might cut tomorrow. Last week, it was looking like 25 bps w...Read More

Today, we'll discuss something you don't hear much about, but probably should the American steel industry, particularly the ongoing saga of how Japan's Nippon Steel wants to buy an iconic American firm, U.S. Steel.What would this kind of politicking mean to American steel, if not the U.S. economy, more broadly? Let's tap this furnace, so to speak, but first, let's review the Trump-Harris debate...Read More

Donald Trump survived what appears to be another assassination attempt yesterday. It would have been the second attempt on his life within two months.Trump was golfing at a course he owns in West Palm Beach, close to his home at Mar-a-Lago.Scouring the course two holes ahead of Trump, an alert Secret Service agent apparently spotted the barrel of a rifle protruding from a chain-link fence behind s...Read More

We understand the United States may soon bless Ukrainian missile strikes within the Russian interior with Western-supplied missilery.Thus the United States and its NATO understrappers would stomp across one of Russia's famous "red lines."Mr. Putin:Flight assignments for these missile systems can, in fact, only be entered by military personnel of NATO countries. Ukrainian military personnel canno...Read More

Professional obligations required us to view Tuesday night's presidential debate.The experience jackhammered home our central contention: Politics is disguised violence.There you had the two combatants, Harris and Trump, Trump and Harris.Perhaps one half of the nation is for the one. The second half is for the other.One will win and the other will lose.Thus roughly one-half of the population must...Read More

Next week in Frankfurt, I'm teaching "soft skills," which are interpersonal skills that enable effective communication, collaboration, and problem-solving. These skills cover a wide array of areas, such as presentation skills, negotiation skills, business writing skills, and other critical and transferable skills.I'm always looking for new games and simulations, as chalk-and-talk gets boring quick...Read More

The first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and potentially the only debate takes place in Philadelphia tonight, hosted by ABC News.There will be no live audience and neither candidate will release opening statements. Nor will either be allowed to ask questions of each other.Both of their microphones will be muted when the other is speaking, though ABC has evidently in...Read More

Last evening Donald Trump and Kamala Harris stood before the American people... and debated.In an alternate reality, here is what transcribed.MODERATOR: Mr. Trump, before the pandemic you were spending record amounts of money and running up the national debt. Explain yourself.DONALD TRUMP: I never said I was Paul Ryan. I was a Democrat from New York City for most of my life. I found an issue that...Read More

September strikes again!After just a handful of trading days, I'm here to report that this month is going much like many investors feared...Stocks are skidding lower at an alarming rate so far this month and traders are running for cover, buying up safety trades like utilities and consumer staples names as tech stocks and other popular plays continue to dive.The post-Labor Day malaise has been abs...Read More

As my longtime readers know, I'm a financial forecaster who prefers to focus on markets.But because politics can have such a large influence on markets, I can't afford to ignore politics. So I'll be focusing a lot on the November election in the next two months.Today we'll be looking at the candidates' platforms, along with polling results and methodologies.We'll also consider some wild cards that...Read More

A truly staggering quantity of content is aimed at predicting what happens next, aka the future, and justifies their prediction by referencing models that are presented as rock-solid predictive tools.The majority of these models are based on historical examples that have been distilled into models of “how the world works,” i.e. claims that these were not one-offs or outliers but exampl...Read More

"So did you meet President Reagan?" It was back in the 1980s. I was speaking with another Navy officer. We were both on the staff of the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). And she had been invited to attend a state dinner at the White House.State dinners are a big deal, anytime and under any administration. An invitation to an event like that is a rare ticket in Washington, D.C. Even within the ethe...Read More

Here in Annapolis summer's fever has broken.Deep azure vaults high overhead... and refrigerating wafts steal in from the Chesapeake Bay.All is peace.Many analysts consider September a month of market peace. Look to October, they say.October is when the gales blow in.The Panic of 1907, the Crash of 1929, "Black Monday" 1987 all came barreling through in October.October's reputation is so villaino...Read More

I'm in Frankfurt, teaching a course on fixed income. It's my first time roaming through the city, though I've spent far too much time using its airport for connecting flights.I'm reminded of a piece I wrote a year ago that's worth revisiting, thanks to Germany's dire economic state. Once, a business titan reshaped Europe thanks to his riches and connections to the Habsburgs.No man had a more signi...Read More

Few events will affect investors more than the U.S. presidential election. The playing out of the campaign between now and Nov. 5 will obviously have an impact on markets as one side surges and the other side falters and vice versa.But the impact won't last for two months. It'll last for four years and beyond because the two candidates Trump and Harris offer radically different policies.It's e...Read More

Labor Day weekend is over, and the election is just over two months away. Is the U.S. economy in a recession as election season enters full swing?There's a mountain of data suggesting the answer is yes, or if we're not in a recession, we soon will be. We'll explore this data below but let's begin with the (supposedly) most powerful force in the U.S. economy the Federal Reserve.On Aug. 23, Fed Ch...Read More

The alliance between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Donald Trump is many things.But first it's an all-clear signal to a large class of less-than-fully brain-damaged Americans that it's OK to quit being insane. As you know, this election is no longer a battle between the political left and right. It's an epic struggle-session between the sane and the insane.You just witnessed the Democratic convention n...Read More