The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

"We lose total control…" she said.Hillary Clinton was recently on CNN calling for censorship of social media. Here's her full quote:We should be, in my view, repealing something called Section 230, which gave, you know, platforms on the internet immunity because they were thought to be just pass-throughs, that they shouldn't be judged for the content that is posted.But we now know that that...Read More

"It's only a few AK-47s!" will one day be up there with "I only had one!"Let me explain.Chick Baller Arrested For Pot in RussiaWhen Griner was arrested in Russia in 2022, I wrote a Rude Awakening piece called "From Russia with Mowie Wowie." I thought it'd be fun to write about two things I don't give a toss about: cannabis and women's sports. I presciently concluded that article with this wrap-up...Read More

Over the past century, monetary systems change about every 30-40 years on average. Before 1914, the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard.Then in 1944, a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods. Under that system, the dollar became the global reserve currency, linked to gold at $35 per ounce. In 1971 Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For th...Read More

In Tuesday's reckoning we argued with our tongue plastered to our cheek that a libertarian dictator may best serve the United States at this time.That is because the stability of the American constitutional order, a fantastic virtue when the nation is in whack, becomes a vicious vice when the nation is out of whack.In our telling the nation is presently out of whack. And the inefficient govern...Read More

Cycles surround us. In markets, astronomy, and our lives.Every day is a circadian cycle for us all. Our bodies move through phases based on our exposure to light or darkness.Markets are also remarkably cyclical, responding to the environment around them. Interest rates, regulation, monetary policy and investor psychology all play important roles.Precious metals are no different. The sector’s...Read More

Does a fantastic American strength... double as a crippling American weakness?The nation's Founders erected a governmental apparatus so unwieldy, so inert, so plodding, it is exceedingly difficult to budge.That is, it is exceedingly difficult to "get things done."Imagine an automobile with merely two gears first gear and reverse gear.Imagine further that once the thing attains 10 miles per hour...Read More

Hurricane Milton is slicing across the Gulf of Mexico, intensifying into a monstrous Category 5 storm that's now threatening to lay waste to Florida.If you're keeping score at home, this will be the second major storm to make landfall in the US in a matter of weeks. Tampa residents haven't even finished clearing debris from Helene - and now many are forced to evacuate ahead of Milton's landfall.Un...Read More

It's hard to believe, but the election is now under a month away. How does the race look today? Let's talk about the polls.Polls are an indispensable tool in election analysis and forecasting despite many flaws. The first thing to say about polls is that they're snapshots, not movies. They help you understand where the contest stands today, but not necessarily where the race is going.I recently di...Read More

A great many people have immense faith in political solutions to looming crises: If only we elect new leaders, if only we replace current policies with new policies, everything would be fixed and the crises will all dissipate.There are powerful reasons for this faith and equally powerful reasons why political solutions fail in crisis. Our faith in politics is nurtured by recency bias in eras of re...Read More

Is the United States enduring a "Quiet Coup"? Economist Peter St. Onge:In the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis, former chief economist of the IMF Simon Johnson warned that the same dysfunctional policies he saw in his basket-case banana republics had taken hold in the United States.Johnson warned that if America didn't act fast, we would plunge into a "Quiet Coup" as the American financial system...Read More

In times of uncertainty or market turbulence, investors often look for ways to profit from volatility, rather than trying to predict the direction a stock will move.For traders, the concept of volatility itself becomes the most attractive asset to exploit.Two popular strategies for capitalizing on price swings are long and short straddles and long and short strangles. These strategies are designed...Read More

I remember the 2011 silver bull market like it was yesterday.We had already experienced two rounds of money printing (QE) by then, and the bank bailouts were still fresh on everyone's mind.Silver prices shot up from $9.40 per ounce in October 2008 to over $49 in April 2011.It was a beautiful run, but ended much too quickly for my liking. Silver stayed above $30 for almost two more years, but as th...Read More

Today, Iran launched a major missile attack against Israel, which heightens the chances of a wider Middle East conflict. I'll have more to say about that tomorrow.Today I want to address the second assassination attempt on Donald Trump.The second assassination attempt on the life of Donald Trump in the past two months is already being memory-holed by the mainstream media.Who's to blame for the sec...Read More

There's so much happening right now, including last night's vice presidential debate, it's hard to know where to begin.But yesterday's attack by Iran on Israel needs to be addressed because of its potentially massive implications.Iran launched a major missile attack against Israel, in apparent retaliation for recent Israeli attacks upon Iranian proxy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Details of the a...Read More

The major averages are barreling into the fourth quarter perched near all-time highs.The S&P 500 is now up more than 20% year-to-date, and more than 60% off its bear market lows posted in late 2022.US stocks are strong no doubt about that!I spend most of my time analyzing and trading US stocks. It's called home bias - the tendency for investors to favor domestic stocks over foreign investmen...Read More

I'd like to start today's issue by extending my thoughts and prayers to those impacted by Hurricane Helene, which has devastated significant portions of the southeast with massive flooding.The death toll is over 100 and may increase significantly. Let's all hope the affected areas will recover.Moving on, with so much attention focused on the U.S. presidential election, the war in Ukraine and the w...Read More

The word capitalism has no stable definition and should probably be permanently retired. That won't happen, however, because too many people are invested in its use and abuse.I'm long over trying to push my definition over someone else's understanding, generally viewing disputes about vocabulary and dictionary definitions as a distraction against the real debate over concepts and ideals.The point...Read More

When I travel by air, which I do often, I usually choose a window seat. Looking out over the American landscape, I've noticed some changes in recent years.Among the forests, fields, farms, housing and office park developments, I see many solar panel arrays. But there's something else as well, and a lot of it. I'm talking about data centers.They're especially common in northern Virginia, outside D....Read More

Eat. Drink. And be merry for tomorrow we die.Poor economic omens litter the heavens. Among these are plunging manufacturing and wobbling unemployment.Meantime, some 96% of Americans fear for the United States economy.Yet consumer consumption said to represent 70% of the gross domestic product remains a-jump.Why is the American consumer evidently so flush? Why is she spending money she hersel...Read More

When I wrote in last Friday's Rude Awakening that I had sold my stocks, I had a funny feeling I'd be back in sooner rather than later. It seems I prefer the frying pan of the markets to the fiery waiting of purgatory.Jay Powell announced his 50-basis-point cut last Wednesday, and I was surprised. I had thought a 50-basis-point cut was too much, too late. The market would know that Jay knew somethi...Read More