The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

What a mess!Buyers are melting down following Wednesday's Powell presser, crushing the hopes and dreams of a market melt-up into the holidays.This week's rate cut didn't register on most folk's radar. After all, a 25 basis point cut was a sure thing. What the market clearly wasn't expecting were Powell's comments that the FOMC wasn't planning on as many cuts in 2025 as advertised.Keep in mind, we'...Read More

During Intel's long stretch of breakthroughs in the 1990s and early 2000s, it released new, faster chips every 1 to 2 years.It was an incredible feat, and rapidly swept us into the internet age.OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, was moving at a similar speed early on. A new, wildly improved model every 1-2 years. But recently the company has been releasing a new model every 3 to 4 monthsAdditionally, its...Read More

By the early 1900s, Argentina was in a golden age. It rose to become a top 10 nation in global wealth.The country had a top-notch railway system, rich agricultural yields, bountiful mineral wealth, and a high-growth economy.Its middle class grew by leaps and bounds. Laissez-faire capitalism had done wonders for the country.Following the Great Depression in 1929, everything changed.The state took o...Read More

"I always tried to turn every disaster into an opportunity," said John D. Rockefeller, one of the wealthiest Americans in history. The late 1800s was a time of high tariff barriers, flourishing American industry, low regulations, and booming trade within our borders. It was part of the historical American System that Jim described in the recent Strategic Intelligence issue.The American System refe...Read More

$200 billion can buy a lot of Bitcoin.That’s the amount of cash Microsoft is sitting on - money that could have made history a few weeks ago.The crypto world watched with bated breath as Microsoft shareholders faced a decision that would ripple through Wall Street: whether to turn some of that mountain of cash into Bitcoin.For Bitcoin believers, it would have been the ultimate validation.Mic...Read More

If you've ever found yourself cornered at a dinner party by that one guy with a conspiratorial gleam in his eye and a penchant for explaining why the economy is "just a series of smoke and mirrors," you'll appreciate Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson. It's The Book that offers the economically curious a set of brass knuckles to face the muddled nonsense of popular economic "thought." And by...Read More

Trump will begin his first 100 days with an emphasis on his economic plans.His core economic team is already announced including Russell Vought as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative, Kevin Hassett as Director of the National Economic Council, Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce.Hassett and B...Read More

An important feature of Trump's second term will be his actions on the first day. Trump will sign a flurry of executive orders (EOs) on the day he is sworn in (January 20, 2025) and the following day. The exact number is not known but it will easily be 50 orders or more.The official number of each Executive Order is also not known in advance because they will have to be processed under the Adminis...Read More

Trading is a game of decisions.When it comes to playing the markets, you'll have split seconds where your courage and discipline are tested.But sometimes, the real pain comes not from the trades you take, but the ones you don't.I've spent years learning this the hard way.March 2020 was a prime example. Markets were in freefall, panic was everywhere, and opportunities were quietly emerging beneath...Read More

It was December 2, 1805. The fields of Austerlitz were cloaked in fog.Napoleon Bonaparte outnumbered and ostensibly retreating, faced the combined might of the Austrian and Russian imperial armies.The Allies believed they had him cornered. They saw the French emperor's lines thinning and his forces retreating from a key high ground, the Pratzen Heights. Sensing an opportunity, they charged forward...Read More

During Donald Trump's first term, U.S. tariffs on China increased from 3% in 2016 to 19% by the end of 2020.As a result, China's share of the U.S. trade deficit dropped from 47% to 26%. However, it's worth noting that America's trade imbalance continued to rise, as production shifted to low-tariff countries such as Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico.When Biden came into office, the expectation was that h...Read More

Uranium production is best understood as an industry played out on a geopolitical chessboard.Enriched uranium is used to fuel nuclear reactors. The degree of enrichment is not high. Natural uranium (sometimes called yellowcake) has about 0.7% U-235 isotope. This is enriched to 3% to 5% for use in most reactors (called low-enriched uranium or LEU). Some specialized reactors require uranium enriched...Read More

Here in Italy, he's known as Tommaso d'Aquino. But to the English-speaking world, he's St. Thomas Aquinas, Doctor Angelicus, and the foremost Scholastic thinker, theologian, and philosopher of the Middle Ages. His Summa Theologiae is over 5,000 pages long; thank heavens God sent Catholic author Peter Kreeft to the 20th and 21st centuries to summarize the Summa for us modern readers.After the uphea...Read More

President Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has stated that he believes the world is on the cusp of a "global economic reordering". And he would "like to be a part of it".He has hinted at the need for a new international agreement on the level of the famous Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. Bretton Woods, of course, established the world monetary order over 8 decades ago.It sounds...Read More

Change is finally coming to America's failing healthcare system.If RFK Jr. is confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Trump administration is set to truly shake things up for the first time in modern history.HHS is a gigantic beast, with 13 divisions under its roof including the FDA, CDC, CMS, and NIH.CMS' Medicare spending alone reached over $840 billion in 2023, making up...Read More

We've seen this show before...Just four short years ago, stocks and crypto were ripping to new highs at a rate that alarmed many conservative investors.Due to Covid's warping of the space-time continuum, December 2020 feels like it was just yesterday and eons ago at the same time. In case you've memory-holed the second half of the year of lockdowns and Covid panic, I'll set the stage...The weather...Read More

"Not permitted under the law," snapped Jay Powell. The scene was the Fed's press conference. It was the day after Donald Trump's resounding election victory.The reporter, seeking confirmation, followed up. "Not per-MIT-ted under the law!" repeated a visibly irritated Powell, slowly enunciating the word.Powell's body language said he's ready to battle Trump in the press. I recount this scene to giv...Read More

Tucker Carlson is once again in Moscow, Russia.In February, the last time he was there, his interview with Vladimir Putin caused quite a stir. Leftist media called Tucker a traitor, Kremlin propagandist, and worse.Carlson and Putin discussed salient topics including the war in Ukraine, the Nord Stream pipeline bombing, and Russia's involvement in Syria.The interview gave many Americans their first...Read More

President Trump will enter office at a very interesting time for U.S. stock markets. America is absolutely torching the rest of the world.Today American companies make up a whopping 75% of the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index contains shares of the largest stocks from Europe, Canada, Singapore, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Israel, and the United States.Source: Albert Edwards on XThis index...Read More

For centuries, diplomacy has been the cornerstone of civilization's survival. It's a sophisticated dance between nations to prevent conflicts and secure peace, both an art and a science. Yet, in a time of global tensions and the looming specter of nuclear annihilation, the United States finds itself neglecting one of its most important tools: dialogue with Russia.What's the historical significance...Read More