The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

A while ago, I wrote that Donald Trump embodies both mercantilism abroad and libertarianism at home. My views have evolved. After nearly two months of Trump 47, I'd add another layer to the mix: fascism.Now, before you hurl your phone across the room, let me clarify I'm not parroting the looney left who slap "fascist" on anything they don't like. I'm talking old-school, Il Duce fascism, which is...Read More

Headlines blamed yesterday's crash on Trump. It's the tariffs!But I have a much simpler explanation: U.S. stocks have never been so overvalued. With stocks trading at nosebleed valuations, almost anything could catalyze a crash.Sure, tariffs played a role, but the underlying problem is the bubble itself. American stocks are priced for perfection, so anything less than that is bound to disappoint.I...Read More

Recession signals are becoming hard to ignore.On Monday, JPMorgan economists raised their risk of recession to 40%. Big banks are typically bullish to a fault, so this is noteworthy.Meanwhile, a recent poll revealed that more than half of Americans have less than $500 in savings.And Walmart CEO Doug McMillon just made worrying comments about consumer behavior. From his recent speech at the Economi...Read More

Not long ago, I had lunch with someone who currently has over $100 billion (yes, billion with a "b") outstanding on capital projects.Through his contracts and spending power, this guy buys steel by the tens of thousands of tons. Along the way, he moves aluminum and copper markets. Beyond basic metals, he procures train cars filled with machinery, electrical equipment and much else.Indeed, this man...Read More

In 2000, Sun Microsystems was one of the hottest stocks in the world.Sun seemed to have everything going for it. They were a leader in computer hardware, and offered cutting-edge software solutions. They were an integral part of the fast-growing internet ecosystem.Shares soared from $5 to $64 at the peak in 2000. The company's market cap reached $200 billion, and the price/sales ratio reached 10x...Read More

Of greatest interest to us among Donald Trump's long list was his promise to balance the budget."And in the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget...We are going to balance it."Many are the minor issues, imbecilities and annoyances of modern American government. But a $36 trillion debt is something else. If we don't stop the smoke; we'll see the fl...Read More

Trump's economic team continues to signal that hard times are coming.Scott Bessent, Trump's Treasury Secretary, has made a flurry of recent media appearances. And he's setting expectations low.Bessent recently admitted to CNBC that America has "become addicted to government spending, and there's going to be a detox period".A detox period, you say? Hmmm.More recent commentary from Bessent:Could we...Read More

On Tuesday, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson presided over President Trump's address to a joint session of Congress. He was seated on the podium next to Vice President JD Vance, acting in his capacity as president of the U.S. Senate. President Trump stood in front of them facing the cameras and the world. This is the kind of environment he thrives in.On the House floor, in addition to the members...Read More

The Donald wants his prize: Greenland. Unlike his first term, when everyone ignored him, this time everyone's taking him quite seriously. Why is that? Because they understand now that Trump isn't daydreaming about owning the world. They know Greenland is a serious way to secure the North Atlantic.A Warming Arctic, A Growing OpportunityThe Arctic is ice-free for more of the year than ever, which ha...Read More

Over the weekend, President Trump's Department of Government Efficiency head Elon Musk made quite a stir with just two words posted on his social media platform, X. Responding to a post that, "It's time to leave NATO and the UN," Musk replied, "I agree." The comment immediately made the rounds on social media and also on mainstream and alternative media.Was this the Elon Musk who owns X speaking,...Read More

On the campaign trail, Trump promised to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" for the country.But what he announced on Sunday was quite different…Over the past week Trump has made two major cryptocurrency moves that signal we are entering a new wild west era.#1: A new multi-asset U.S. crypto reserve will be established#2: The SEC has signaled a "hands-off" approach to crypto regulationThe...Read More

They booed the U.S. national anthem the other night at the Rogers Center in Toronto. Canadians are mad about those Trump tariffs that kick into gear today, March 4th.And despite being in Ontario - aka "Massachusetts West" in terms of politics - this was a throng of WWE fans. That is, the arena was filled with people whose tastes run towards professional wrestling. Not exactly a bunch of lefties, e...Read More

Mainstream political pundits are frothing at the mouth over Trump's overtures to Russia.Trump recently shocked the Western world by stating, "I think Putin will keep his word…I've known him for a long time now. We had to go through the Russian hoax together."President Trump also accused President Zelensky of "gambling with World War 3" in front of a live TV audience. The exchanges between Tr...Read More

Throughout recent history, every American President has campaigned on a slogan of change.But the promised change never arrived. Until now.Today the bloated federal government is being deflated by President Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).An audit of U.S. gold reserves is in the works. And possibly an audit of the Federal Reserve, too.Meanwhile a rift has split open between the E...Read More

Even casual observers know that gold has been trading near all-time highs lately. The dollar price of gold has been trading around $2,955 per ounce, quite close to the all-time closing high and near the recent intraday high just below $3,000 per ounce. Since November 1, 2022, gold has rallied from $1,650 per ounce to $2,955 per ounce, an 80% gain in 28 months.Since the U.S. dollar is also near int...Read More

I've just returned from a two-week visit to India. The above epigram was offered by several of my guides on different occasions. It captures the essence of India perfectly.Many people are completely put off at the thought of visiting India or are repelled when they get there. They focus on the dirt, air pollution, smells, overcrowding, swarms of beggars and street vendors, cars honking in the citi...Read More

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, isn't known for hyperbole. When he speaks, it's with the weight of decades of market observation, historical analysis, and deep economic thinking. So when he tells Tucker Carlson that the United States is in a kind of civil war, people should listen.This isn't a war of muskets and bayonets but of irreconcilable d...Read More

As investors, it is important to acknowledge our weaknesses.My biggest weakness is that I hate owning overvalued stocks. I look at the S&P 500 today and simply cannot pull the trigger. It's too expensive.As a result, I've left some gains on the table over the past few years, as U.S. stocks soared to the extremes we see today.Take a look at the chart below, which combines seven metrics to show...Read More

President Trump recently issued an executive order instructing the US Mint to stop producing pennies. The reason for this is it costs nearly four cents to produce one penny.That's right: the US government can't even make pennies without losing money! President Trump may have signed the death certificate, but the Federal Reserve is the penny's true killer. Since the Fed's creation, the US dollar ha...Read More

How much gold do you own? The correct answer is: "Not enough."Don't you wish you had some of these? This is a $20 gold coin from 1914, the first year of the Federal Reserve. And back then, just over 110 years ago, gold was $20 per ounce.U.S. $20 gold coin, St. Gaudens, minted 1914. Courtesy U.S. Treasury Dept.Today's gold price is over $2,900, which means that the purchasing power of a dollar over...Read More