Gold Price Completely Unsurprising Reversal and Next Steps / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

Did today’s decline in gold surpriseyou? It shouldn’t – during Thursday’s rally, gold moved to two resistancelines.

And I sent out a special Alert indicatingthat this was actually a shorting opportunity. That’s my second position ingold in years, and we closed the previous one (it was a long position)profitably in April this year.

The Beginning of aBigger Move

And let me tell you this – the movelower has only begun. I’m not going to show you short-term gold charts in thisarticle, but I am going to show you several long-term charts confirming thatwhat happened on a short-term basis was not accidental.

Let’s start off with gold’s monthly chart(based on monthly candlesticks), where you can see that gold formed two monthlyreversals in April and May.



Since gold is likely to decline shortly,it’s also likely that we’re going to see a third monthly reversal in a row – what a powerful triple sell signal thatwill be!

Copper has been indicating weakness forcommodities for quite some time, and there’s nothing subtle about it.



Invalidation of the move to new highs isa powerful sell signal.

We saw one also in bitcoin.



Bitcoin’s halving failed to ignite arally to new highs. The “new gold” is below even its 2021 top. Ok, it’s not asweak as mining stocks, but it’s not how a really strong market behaves.

It’s the same with Chinese stocks thatjust verified the breakdown below their rising support line.



This is bad. Like, really bad. This lineproved to be strong support three times – in 2020 and in 2022. And now it wasverified as resistance. Since commodities like copper are already declining,suggesting that technical indications from the Chinese market are notaccidental, Chinese stocks can indeed slide.



World stocks are most likely forming a broader top here, similar to the one that we saw in 2021, but since Chinesestocks already turned south, it seems only a matter of (little) time beforethis huge domino piece triggers the fall of the other pieces.

Technically, world stocks encounteredextremely strong resistance – their all-time highs that already worked – thisresistance stopped the rally in 2021.

PessimisticEconomic Indicators

On a side note, it’s quite pessimisticto see that despite all that stimulus money (and inflation measured not only by CPI that some view as artificially lowered, but by purchases reported by realpeople), stocks were not able to move to new highs. It’s not a recession on its own, but it does indicate that we might see one in the following months.Let’s keep in mind that technicals precede fundamentals, so a slide in worldstocks here could indicate a global economic slowdown.

Also, both previous cases when worldstocks topped at those levels were followed by huge declines in the miningstocks.

Let’s not forget that the USD Index is ina long-term uptrend and most likely still early in its powerful, medium-termupswing.



What used to be resistance (the 2016 and 2020 tops and the 100 level in general) are nowsupport.

The short-term chart suggests that theoutlook is also positive for the following weeks, not just months.



The USDX is after medium-term andshort-term breakouts. Both were verified. The next move is very likely to beUP.

This is bearish for the precious metalssector. While there are times when USDX and gold move up together, those timespass, and the natural tendency for them to move in opposite directions takesprecedence. Of course, I don’t mean the long term, where both markets movebased on their own (connected, but still not identical) fundamentals andcycles.

Let’s move to silver.



It surely didn’t take silver a lot oftime to invalidate the move above $30. It was another fake rally – somethingthat silver is known for, and something that I warned about.



As silver invalidated its moves above the2020 and 2021 highs, we saw very strong sell signal. Today’s invalidation ofthe rally is just a cherry on this extremely bearish analytical cake.

I know, it’s hard to believe that silvermight fall here (even though it has a long-term potential to go into tripledigits), but that’s exactly what the technicals are suggesting right now. Ifone wants to buy gold or silver as insurance, then I have nothing against it(no, that’s not investment advice), but I’d suggest going with a trustedgold dealer or a reputable silverdealer. As far as the near-term and medium-term price moves areconcerned, I don’t think that we’ll see higher prices.

I warned about silver NOT being able tobreak much higher when it topped in 2021, and I’m warning about the same thingnow. The invalidation is not hypothesis – it already happened. What’s likely tofollow next are significant declines.

You have been warned.

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Thank you.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Toolsfor Effective Gold & Silver Investments - SunshineProfits.com

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