FOREX-Euro's gains held back by caution over ECB meeting

By Kitco News / December 13, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link


* Traders prepare for ECB president press conference
* Sterling up after Brexit drama
* Norway's crown rallies on central bank plan for March raterise
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2018 (Updates after ECB decision, adds latest prices)By Tommy WilkesLONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - The euro struggled to stay inpositive territory on Thursday after the European Central Bankstuck to its monetary policy stance, with traders worried thatthe central bank's president's would signal growing pessimismabout economic growth.The ECB formally ended its vast bond purchase scheme andkept interest rates on hold, as expected. But the focus will be on ECB President Mario Draghi's newsconference at 1330 GMT, and his expectations for growth andinflation at a time when the global economy may be slowing, aswell as any signals on an interest rate rise in late 2019."Our base case is that they stick to their script(maintaining their growth and inflation forecasts), but if theydon't, it will weigh on the euro," said Jane Foley, a currenciesstrategist at Rabobank.Those concerns about ECB caution meant Italy's announcementthat it would cut its budget deficit target, which may defuse amonths-long row with European Union officials, did not boost theeuro much in Thursday trading earlier. The euro traded up 0.1 percent at $1.1389 immediatelyafter the ECB announcement but then traded down to $1.1367,unchanged on the day.The single currency has largely traded in a $1.16-$1.12range since August, particularly after the dollar's eight-monthrally slowed on signs the Federal Reserve will stop raisingrates sooner than previously expected.Alvin Tan, a strategist at Societe Generale, predictseuro/dollar will remain in a tight range into 2019."On the one hand, U.S. growth is slowing. On the other, wehave a situation where European political risk remains large anda cautious ECB," he said.Against a basket of its rivals, the dollar index slipped 0.1percent 96.969 before recovering.


Signs of easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions and expectationsthat China will increase support for its cooling economy helpedbroader market sentiment on Thursday. That spilled into currencies, with the Australian dollar --a barometer of China's economic fortunes -- gaining 0.2 percentto $0.7235 .Elsewhere, sterling remained the big story after BritishPrime Minister Theresa May fought off a bid to unseat her bycolleagues unhappy with her Brexit plans.


May returns to Brussels on Thursday for help in trying tosell a tweaked version of her much-criticised Brexit agreementto unhappy colleagues. Sterling was up 0.4 percent to $1.2687 before settling around $1.2650. The Swiss National Bank kept its ultra-loose monetary policyin place at a policy meeting. The francwaslittle changed. Norway's central bank also kept rates on hold but reiteratedits plans for a March increase, sending the crown up as much ashalf a percent versus the euro and the dollar .The yen shed 0.2 percent to 113.46 and 0.2 percentversus the euro to 129.01 yen.China's offshore yuan dipped 0.2 percent to 6.8780 astraders questioned whether Washington and Beijing would be ableto calm tensions in their trade war. (Editing by Larry King and Jon Boyle) Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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