Australia gold exports fall, spur trade deficit

By James Glynn / January 05, 2018 / www.marketwatch.com / Article Link

SYDNEY--Australia's trade deficit widened in November, confounding economists' optimistic expectations and raising the prospect of weaker economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The seasonally adjusted November trade gap of 628 million Australian dollars (US$493 million) was the biggest shortfall in more than a year, and marked the second consecutive deficit after October's result was revised down sharply.

Economists had forecast a surplus of A$550 million in November. The Australian dollar weakened on the report.

An unexpected 23% fall in gold exports, coupled with strong gains in imports of both consumption and capital goods, fanned the deterioration in the trade balance.

For most of 2017, Australia's trade balance was in healthy surplus, helped by strong commodity prices and rising resources exports, making the reversal of fortunes a shock to many forecasters.

The data points to some trimming of GDP forecasts in the fourth quarter.

Still, the outlook remains upbeat, with the sharp drop in gold exports likely a one-off and exports of liquefied natural gas set to rise.

"LNG is in an uptrend as new capacity comes on stream with prices firming while services are seeing strong demand from the Asian region," said Simon Murray, economist at Westpac.

Rising imports of capital goods to build things is likely to be positive sign for the economy, where recent GDP growth is getting a tailwind from strong infrastructure spending, said Prashant Newnaha, economist at TD Securities.

Consecutive monthly trade deficits was surprising in so much as there had been solid increases in prices for commodity and services exports, said Craig James, chief economist at Commsec.

Australian consumers are shrewdly purchasing goods online from overseas vendors, he added. The Aussie dollar rebounded last year, making it cheaper for them to buy overseas, he added.

-Write to James Glynn at james.glynn@wsj.com

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