We're Still in a Gold Bull Market
Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities explains why he believes we are still in a bear market when it comes to gold, despite public sentiment.
Yes, we are still in a bull market for gold, but you wouldn't know it.
KEY POINTS
Gold
Breached support againMajor support not too far belowGold in most currencies at or near all time highsGold Stocks
Volatility is this sectorSentiment still very lowBack into supportASX Gold Stocks
Still working through that RHSPalladium
Gets hammeredBack into long term supportSentiment worse than 2015 before subsequent 500% rise!Stock Markets and Currencies
S&P 500 about to surgeBond rally to pickup steam?US$ about to surge?Yen teeteringNikkei about to surgeYen Gold at all time highsEURO about to crack as well?Gold in Euros about to surgeGerman DAX near all time highsFrench CAC in strong uptrendYuan still weakShanghai about to surge?17 year downtrend meets 32 year uptrendWhat a wedge!Gold in Yuan near all time highsback to key supportAll Ords in supportAbout to run higher?Gold in A$ near all time highsA$ holding on downtrendPankind walkathon for Pancreatic Cancer on 19 NovemberSupport Sonia Cottee in Canberra walkathon fundraiserGold continues to frustrate the bulls and continue to depress small-cap investors in a microcosm that is totally at odds with actions in other world markets.
Gold in most currencies has been making new all time highs and seems ready to run much higher.
That is what you would normally call a bull market!
But you are not feeling it. Sentiment is still so poor. The major currencies seem on the edge of another big decline. The Yen and Euro look very weak, and even small declines from here would suggest major breakdowns ahead.
Economic fundamentals ( whatever that means nowadays) are deteriorating, but stocks are heading higher and seem to want to run very hard to look over the valley and beyond the horizon.
The Israel/Hamas conflict gets stranger by the day, with journalists `embedded' in the Hamas adventure and the roles being challenged everywhere.
What to believe?
Heed the markets indeed.
What are they telling us?
Apart from yet another US$20 slapdown.
I'm still thinking about this a-b-c pull back into support.
Signs of powerful internal character in gold.
It could come down another US$20.
A lot of long-term support here.
That May 2023 downtrend is there.
And horizontal support.
Another US$20 lower would backtest the breakout and support on that downtrend.
What can you say about this after that fabulous 6% gain on the previous Friday?
Newmont hit the bottom of this wedge.
This ratio goes back to the lower edge.
Really oversold.
Silver
Still building up pressureWill break to the upside soonSoonish
Palladium
Hammered!
Keep in mind the bigger picture is still looking positive for the mining sector.
Currencies, gold, and stock markets.
Is there a pattern here?
US$ is universally expected to crash, but it hasn't yet and just might not.
Still expecting 155.
S&P 500 Breaks Downtrend
4600 soon4800 by year end?
The other currencies tell a slightly different story.
Weak currencies, strong local gold prices, and stock markets that could really surge.
Japanese Yen
At very critical stageVery ugly chartBelow the Devil's Number
Gold in Yen
Small pull back from all time highsHeading much higher
Japan stock market
About break 7-month downtrendSet to surge much higher
Euro
The Euro broke a 50-year uptrend and provided a goodbye kiss backtest before falling away again.
Closing below 105 would crack the Euro.
Gold in Euros is heading higher in a strong uptrend.
Backtesting 2022 downtrend.
German DAX is just off all time highs.
French CAC is just off all time highs.
Chinese Yuan
Heading lower
Gold in Yuan
Has pulled back from all time highInto major support
Shanghai Stock Market
Is this about to surge as well?Same level as 200917 year downtrend just about to meet:-32 Year uptrendWhat a wedge!
Australia
AU$ is weak, but it is holding onto a 12-year downtrend.
AU$ gold is heading higher.
All Ords holding onto uptrend.
The 7700 resistance seems more important to watch than the 15-year uptrend.
Sonia Cottee
A dear friend in Canberra with Stage 4 Pancreatic Cancer.
Walking on November 19 for Pankind supporting research for Pancreatic Cancer.
Would you like to support a very brave lady?
PYFD 2023 - Canberra | Walk with Soni (putyourfootdown.org.au)
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