Melek Wins LBMA Gold-Outlook Contest; Kendall Tops In Silver
(Kitco News) - Bart Melek, head of commoditiesstrategy at TD Securities, was the winner of the London Bullion MarketAssociation's gold-forecasting contest for 2017, while ICBC Standard Bankanalyst Tom Kendall was first in silver.
Both analysts are frequentlyquoted by Kitco News.
At the start of last year, Melekforecast gold would average $1,256 an ounce. That was only slightly off of theactual 2017 average, which the LBMA put at $1,257.15. Ross Strachan (ThomsonReuters GFMS) was second with a $1,259 forecast, while third was BhargavaVaidya (B.N Vaidya & Associates) with $1,260 outlook.
Kendall forecast silver wouldaverage $17.10; the LBMA listed the actual average at $17.05. The winner wasdetermined by a tie-breaker, as Eddie Nagao (Sumitomo Corp.) also forecast$17.10, but Kendall won as a result of his narrower forecast range, the LBMAsaid. Third place was Bhargava Vaidya an average of $17.25.
Meanwhile, Glyn Stevens(independent) was the platinum winner with a $935 average. The actual averagefor the full year was $948.49, the LBMA said. Eddie Nagao took second with hisforecast of $928, while Melek took third at $984
William Adams, of Metals BulletinLtd., was the palladium winner with an average forecast of $850. The actualaverage price for the full year was $868.96, the LBMA said. The next twofinishers were Thorsten Proettel (LBBW) with an $840 forecast and Ross Norman(Sharps Pixley) with an $828 forecast.
In the LBMA survey conducted for2017, analysts collectively were bullish for all four metals. Compared to theprice in the first half of January 2017, they had forecast a 5.3% increase ingold to $1,244, although the actual average was 1% above expectations at$1,257.15. Analysts had been most bullish about the silver price, forecasting a7.1% increase to $17.77, although the average ended up being below this at$17.05.
Analysts had collectivelyforecast an increase of 4.9% in platinum to $1,014. This was the one metal forwhich they got the price direction wrong, as the average in 2017 fell by 2% to$948.49. They predicted a modest increase of 2.4% in palladium to $762, whichproved to be too conservative, as palladium ended the year as the bestperforming of the four metals with a 16.7% increase to $868.96.
By Allen SykoraFor Kitco News
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asykora@kitco.com Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.