Kitco News Gold Survey: Gold To Keep On Shining
(Kitco News) - Participants in the weeklyKitco News gold survey look for the precious metal to build on its gains nextweek, citing the soft U.S. jobs report released Friday and technical-chartmomentum.
Wall Street
Bullish
Bearish 
Neutral VS
Main Street
Bullish Bearish Neutral Comex Februarygold topped the $1,300-an-ounce level on the final day of 2017 and has remainedabove this so far in 2018. The metal, helped by a soft U.S. dollar much of thisweek, temporarily bounced from overnight weakness Friday when the governmentreported that the U.S. economy added 148,000 jobs in December, down from the average of232,000 over the previous two months. Still, observers describe the report asconstructive for gold overall since the data should mean the Fed does notaccelerate the anticipated pace of monetary tightening.
Shortlyafter 11 a.m. EST, February gold was up 0.8% for the week to $1,320 an ounce.
Twenty marketprofessionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Eleven, or 55%, called forgold to rise. There were five votes, or 25%, saying gold would fall, with theremaining four votes, or 20%, neutral or calling for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 775 voteswere cast in an online Main Street poll. A total of 477 voters, or 62%, lookedfor gold to climb in the next week. Another 217, or 28%, said lower, while 81,or 10%, were neutral.
For the year 2017, Main Street endedup being right 31 of 50 times for a winning percentage of 62%.Wall Streetforecasters collectively were right 30 of 51 times for 59%. (There were twoweeks without a Main Street poll and one week without a Wall Street poll).
Bob Haberkorn,senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, figures gold has more upsidepotential, with fundamental support coming from the softer-than-expected U.S.nonfarm payrolls. “Gold technically has $1,350 in its sights, the way it’strading now,” he added.
Ralph Preston,principal with Heritage West Financial, also said higher, suggesting gold couldmake a run at $1,400 this year. “There is nothing in its way right now,” hesaid.
Kevin Grady,president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, said he is short-term bullishsince there appears to be a “persistent” major buyer any time prices havepulled back lately. Otherwise, he says, he might be more nervous about the factso many bulls are already in the market, often seen as a sign of a potentialpullback when these players exit. As an example of this, he pointed out thatbased on Friday’s preliminary data, there had been a rise of some 87,000 openpositions in gold futures during the metal’s run higher in recent days.
Meanwhile, MarkLeibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter, said he is “looking for a retracement”after a roughly $90 rally in gold from the December low to the December high.
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, also figuresgold could pull back modestly on profit-taking after the big run run-up. “Goldis a little overbought technically, but nobody wants to be short over theweekend,” he says. Dips are likely to be bought, although the market may need afresh catalyst to push significantly higher, he added.
“This is a pretty sizeable gain...in a short amount of time,” Lusk said. “Themarket, to me, is getting a little top-heavy up here. That could beget a littleprofit-taking in the market.”
ColinCieszynski, chief market strategistat The Fundamental Technician, is in the neutral camp for next week, looking for consolidation in the $1,300 to $1,325 area.
“Gold has had a nice run lately and is overbought on the RSI[Relative Strength Index], so it's technically due for a normal rest within anuptrend,” he said. “USD [U.S. dollar] is stabilizing despite the soft nonfarmpayrolls report, while Bitcoin appears to be coming back under accumulation.”
Hereis a sampling of thoughts from Kitco Main Street voters on Kitco’s commentingKitco Chat:
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asykora@kitco.com Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.