If ever there was a masterclass in the need to disaster-proof a supply chain, then the Covid-19 pandemic has provided a harsh reminder to the automotive sector that it's failing. It's a wake-up call for the industry, which, after a massive earthquake and tsunami hit Japan in March 2011, had vowed to end its "just in time" production philosophy and diversify its supply chain in orderto limit a repe...Read More
The sharp decline in emerging market currencies combined with a collapse in oil prices are providing a twin saving grace for many metals and mining companies during the Covid-19 pandemic. For producers of energy-intensive metals like aluminium, and in particular the low-cost ones, the benefit is even greater. It's an emerging trend that is starting to be reflected in the earnings of corporates in...Read More
The Covid-19 pandemic may well provide Freeport-McMoRan with a silver lining it had never expected. The US copper producer is discussing with the government of Indonesia what should be done with the planned smelter in the Gresik region in the province of East Java. It has been forced to delay the completion timeline of December 2023 for the plant, due both to Covid-19-related disruptions to the wo...Read More
The trend for China to actively import relatively cheap iron metallics and semi-finished steel products seen in 2019 continued into the first quarter of this year, but can this be sustained? The answer to this question will come down to the price-competitiveness of the products, as Fastmarkets' research team detailed in the 2020 preview series earlier in the year. As the chart below illustrat...Read More
London Metal Exchange three-month base metals prices rose on Tuesday May 5, buoyed by increasing optimism for an increase in demand amid expectations that Covid-19 trade restrictions will continue to be eased in some parts of Europe while China's restart gathers momentum. China's market absence - due to the Labor Day public holiday from May 1 to May 5 - failed to dampen upward price momentum acros...Read More
The Singapore Exchange's (SGX) 65% Fe iron ore derivatives contract registered another strong month with 3.3 million tonnes traded in April, according to SGX data published on Tuesday May 5. Fastmarkets iron ore indices 62% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao: $84.04 per tonne, unchanged. 62% Fe low-alumina fines, cfr Qingdao: $86.70 per tonne, unchanged. 58% Fe fines high-grade premium, cfr Qing...Read More
Seaborne coking coal prices were unchanged on Tuesday May 5 in the absence of Chinese market participants observing a holiday for Labor Day, but pessimism is growing amid a negative outlook for Indian demand.Fastmarkets indicesPremium hard coking coal, fob DBCT: $107.12 per tonne, unchangedPremium hard coking coal, cfr Jingtang: $117.33 per tonne, unchangedHard coking coal, fob DBCT: $93.26 per to...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Aluminium: 'Sell the rally' mentality here to stayAlthough the London Metal Exchange aluminium price has managed to recover modestly from recent lows, we suspect this is mostly short-covering. The lack of producer restraint, growing exchange inventories, a weak demand outlook and the 7 million tonnes of oversupply forecast f...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Aluminium: 4-million-tonne surplus for 2020We have made further downward revisions to our aluminium demand expectations for 2020 and, although there have been smelter capacity reduction in China too, the net effect is that our forecast for the global surplus this year has swelled to 4 million tonnes, from 2.7 million tonnes...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Average LME aluminium price down by 2.5% week on weekAlthough LME aluminium began this week on the rebound, prices extended their recent downtrend further last week, approaching the $1,400-per-tonne level. The weekly average LME aluminium cash price was down 2.5% last week to $1,432.50 per tonne from previous week's $1,469.6...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Aluminium: OversoldAluminium has been the hardest hit base metal over the past week, after relentless selling pressure took it to fresh multiyear lows while its LME peers generally consolidate or try to rebound. Aluminium is seeing far less in the way of supply restraint or disruptions than the other metals. But this market...Read More
Global markets are contracting in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the prices for flat steel products continue to retreat, with prices for coated steels down by a further 5% since late March in most of the markets that Fastmarkets tracks.The latest edition of Fastmarkets' Galvanized Steel and Tinplate Market Tracker, for April 2020, is now available to view.Further price falls are almost cer...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Despite these unprecedented times, US sheet prices moved in line with our expectations over the past month. While we maintain our view on the direction of pricing during 2020 and the length of the pricing downturn, as the Covid-19 crisis deepens we have increased the magnitude of the price declines through the second quarter...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.As oil price stumbles, outlook for welded markets weakensIn February, oil prices, already hit by the economic slowdown in Asia, turned lower on the failure of OPEC+ to reach an agreement on production cuts. This was enough to shake oil markets, but the collapse of global demand due to the pandemic has driven Brent below $30/...Read More
The new issue of the Seamless OCTG & Linepipe Market Tracker is now online at metalbulletinresearch.com.In this edition, Fastmarkets' research team delivers analysis of seamless OCTG and linepipe across international markets:Covid-19 underscores pipe outlookUnsurprisingly, the concern in the seamless pipe markets across the regions is the effect of the spread of Covid-19 on public health and econo...Read More
Ferro-alloys prices have generally retreated over the past month, with demand concerns gaining in prominence.The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Ferro-alloy pricing trends have generally diverged ove the past month, depending on the security of the supply-side position of the market. With most supply concerns fading with the resumption of industrial activity i...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.This month's key ferro-alloy forecast highlights:While the ferro-alloy industry's initial response to the Covid-19 outbreak was marked by rising prices primarily in response to supply-side concerns, focus has now shifted somewhat. As Chinese activity slowly returns to more normal levels, for alloys with a strong Chinese prod...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.The first quarter continued the trend of 2019 - for China to actively import relatively cheap metallics and semi-finished steel - but can this be sustained? The answer to this question will come down to the price competitiveness of the products, we believe. One additional incentive to continue to import metallics this year -...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.The recent decline in Chinese scrap prices - to their lowest in a couple of years - even as demand rises, suggests that Chinese scrap supply is increasingly sufficient. In terms of scrap demand, the question is more about price attractiveness. Mini-mills were reducing demand in February, largely because steel margins on scra...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.While downward pressure mounts on the steelmaking raw material markets, premiums for higher-grade iron ores have been sustained despite narrowing operating margins at Chinese steelmakers. Chinese mills are operating with shrinking margins since the end of last year but the premium for high-grade ores remains high. Historical...Read More