With China outperforming the rest of the world in its economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, the country has an increasing need to secure strategic materials and commodities, market participants told Fastmarkets.The disruptions to international trade amid all the headwinds derived from the Covid-19 pandemic have identified the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. The nationwide and...Read More
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mostly higher at the close of trading on Thursday November 12, with lead being the star performer and the rest of the complex showing smaller gains.The three-month price for the heavy metal showed a 1.3% increase from its closing price on Wednesday, to $1,899 per tonne on Thursday.Stock levels dipped by a further 300 tonnes on Thursday to 113,05...Read More
The London Metal Exchange's latest off-warrant stock data showed a net rise of 123,871 tonnes of material held outside the LME network over September, a rise of 7.3% from the prior month with aluminium stockpiles accounting for just under 87% of the total. Copper inventories made a marked descent after incremental rises over the summer. The data, released on Monday November 10, reported stock lev...Read More
Seaborne iron ore prices were down slightly on Thursday November 12 amid diminishing demand for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), sources told Fastmarkets.Fastmarkets iron ore indices 62% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao: $123.74 per tonne, down $0.82 per tonne62% Fe low-alumina fines, cfr Qingdao: $123.74 per tonne, down $1.26 per tonne58% Fe fines high-grade premium, cfr Qingdao: $114.41 per tonne, down $1 pe...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of base metals analysts are ready to view.Aluminium: SHFE tailwind for LME pricesAs we are entering the traditional strong demand season, we expect Chinese aluminium demand to show further recovery, and we expect demand from existing end-user sectors, new infrastructure projects and the export sector to show some increases. As a result, we believe that S...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of base metals analysts are ready to view, including an upgrade to our aluminium price forecasts.Aluminium: Price forecasts raisedWe correctly expected the macro reflationary theme to raise the prices for all base metals but, with it being the base metal with by far the weakest fundamentals, we had expected the price of aluminium to underperform relative...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.These include an increase in our copper mine disruption estimates, upgrades to our production outlook for Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI), a smaller refined zinc surplus, and an upgrade to our zinc price forecasts.Aluminium: Big disconnect between price and fundamentalsAluminium has extended its uptrend on the London Metal...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view. We also review our price forecasting accuracy for the second quarter 2020.Q2 2020 price forecast performance review According to the results of Fastmarkets' Apex for the second quarter of 2020 published this week, Fastmarkets' base metals research team was the second most accurate price forecaster for nickel (99.06%), lead...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.This month's key North American steel forecast highlights:?EUR? Flat steel product prices in the United States moved largely in line with our expectations in October, although the increases slightly outpaced our projections. US hot-rolled coil prices averaged $655 per ton in October, exceeding our forecast price of $640 per...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Flat product prices in the US moved largely in line with our expectations in October, posting impressive gains across the product range, and slightly exceeding our forecasts for coil products.Domestic hot-rolled coil prices averaged $722 per tonne in October, exceeding our forecast of $705 per tonne forecast price.Although w...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts is ready to view.Approaching the end of the calendar year, steelmakers and consumers enter a busy period of contract negotiations for supply for 2021 or at least the first quarter or half year.With the sharp increases in spot market steel prices during recent months, steelmakers are understandably looking to take advantage and secure higher c...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.US ERW OCTG edges higher, seamless could followRising substrate costs helped support US ERW OCTG prices this month, especially at the upper end of the range of offers. Seamless OCTG and linepipe prices, meanwhile, held firm compared with September prices. The fundamentals remain weak, with rig counts going up...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Prices for most ferro-alloys maintained their upward momentum into October, solidifying previous gains and reflecting the improved demand from steelmakers, the rebuilding of depleted inventories, and the supply-side concerns following both planned and unplanned outages. Gains were noted for ferro-silicon, silicon metal, mang...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.This month's key ferro-alloys forecast highlights:Prices across most ore and alloy markets trended higher in September, buoyed by improving demand from steelmakers with the end of the summer holiday season in Europe and the United States, as well as maintained demand from Chinese steel mills. Tightening of alloy inventories...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.This month's key ferro-alloy forecast highlights:Prices across most ferro-alloy markets trended stable to lower in August as demand remained subdued in major markets, apart from China where steel output continues to rise at a rapid pace, supporting demand for ferro-alloys. As alloy makers seek to remedy supply/demand imbalan...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.This month's key ferro-alloy forecast highlights:Numerous ore and alloy markets enjoyed upward pricing momentum in the first half 2020, with supply-side constraints supporting prices despite collapsing demand from steelmakers and other key end users. While supply side issues related to Covid-19 lockdowns have been resolved,...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Iron ore remains the most bullish commodity of the year, with prices fuelled by Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, along with bullish sentiment. But prices are expected to come down because Brazilian exports have begun to recover, and have reached their highest level since the Brumadinho dam disaster in 2019. W...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.In the iron ore market, supply issues including heavy rains at the start of the year, followed by staffing problems during the Covid-19 pandemic, have affected exports from Brazil. This has helped Australia gain a larger market share, but since June, Brazilian export volumes have returned to levels last seen before the...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Chinese blast furnace (BF) utilization rates have stagnated and iron ore port stock volumes are rising, reaching their highest levels since March, which suggests that iron ore supply is becoming excessive while demand is not growing. Unsurprisingly, prices dropped last week and we expect the trend to continue. The market has...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.We do not consider the average iron ore fines price for September so far above $125 per tonne cfr Qingdao to be sustainable. The bullishness is not likely to last in the long term as we expect Chinese demand growth to slow down. A key factor boosting Chinese steel demand so far has been the stimulus policies from the authori...Read More