The trend over the next four weeks in gold and silver could be the trend for the rest of the year. In Asia, local currency price moves will be a far bigger factor (than gold in US dollar) over other themes. Winner will be the ones who are correctly able to determine to trend of the local currency trend. It is not easy to determine the long term trend of Indian rupee as we have an election. Indian rupee will be vulnerable to energy price swings. India also has a massive unhedged foreign exchange corporate debt. Pluses for the Indian economy include an ever growing youth population and a falling savings rate.
Gold jewelery demand in India will be mainly marriage related or investment. Key gifting festivals are over. (Holi is not a gold jewelery gifting festival). March is the month where most Indians spend less. Expenses of school going kids rises as the new classes begin from mid-march onwards. Tax planning related investment are done as fiscal year closes in March. March is cyclically a period of low gold demand and low gold jewelry demand in India. Hindu marriages are also less in March.
Trading and investment volumes in gold, silver and industrial metals should be near normal in China. Chinese demand and Chinese trading volumes does affect metal prices. China will be the key to metal price trend over the next three weeks.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2019 - current price $1577.30
Bullish over $1560.00 with $1593.50 and $1620.00 as price target
Bearish below $1548.50 with $1536.50 and $1519.50 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1548.50-$1560.00
? Silver can rise to $1600 and $1620 as long as it trades over $1550-$1560 zone.
? Small sell off will be there below $1550.
MCX Silver March 2019: (previous day close/CMP Rs.39962)
Bullish over 39716 with 40300 and 40800 as price target
Bearish below 39448 with 39213 and 39036 as price target.
Neutral Zone: 39448-39716
One Support: 39716
One Resistance: 40048
? Silver can rise to 40448 and 40912 as long as it trades over 39600.
? Small sell off will be there below 39600.
(Prices in Indian rupees above)
HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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The analyses are based on closing price as per February 08, 2019. Maintaining proper stop loss is always recommended.
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