Risk of a sustained Chinese slowdown is higher after the Chinese president stressed the need to maintain political stability. Jobs are the key to every nation. Increase in joblessness will create political issues in communist China. Industrial metals can fall first or the pace of rise will reduce after comments from the Chinese president. The Chinese have started/intend to start a massive infrastructure development program to create jobs. These and more job creating measures should result in the Chines economy forming a long term growth bottom this year.
The multiplier effect of trade war and protectionism is that Japanese companies are giving a second thought to capital expenditure and business expansion. This is just the beginning and not the end. Gold bulls have the best chance to capitalize and try and at least force gold prices to trade over $1300. Range bound trade for a few weeks can result in a short term bearish phase. However I will still prefer to use sharp dips to invest only in physical gold.
The IMF has cut its growth forecast for the global economy. The worst is already factored in by the markets. This is one of the reasons why only indices stocks are rising while Market to Market (MTM) value of your portfolio is falling. Any positive news or economic data release can result in global stock markets as well as industrial metals testing previous year highs.
Physical demand in Asia will be key to prices. It is just two weeks to the Chinese New Year. Pre Chinese New Year demand of gold and silver will be closely watched.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2019 - current price $1525.20
Bullish over $1536.00 with $1555.50 and $1576.00 as price target
Bearish below $1510.00 with $1496.00 and $1483.50 as price target
? Small sell off will be there below $1519.
? Crash will be there below $1508.
? Silver needs to trade over $1530-$1535 zone to rise further.
MCX SILVER MARCH 2019 - previous day close Rs.38887
Bullish over 39107 with 39336 and 39712 as price target.
Bearish below 38889 with 38601 and 38081 as price target.
Neutral Zone: 38889-39107
One Support: 38601
One Resistance: 39107
? Crash will be there below 38601 only.
? Silver needs to trade over 39000-39100 zone today to rise further.
? Short sellers keep on booking profit as long as silver does not fall below 38600.
(prices in Indian rupee above)
HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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